Table 2.

Bayesian general linear mixed models testing the influence of several predictor variables on the probability of sharing the same E. coli MLST or a single locus variant

Model	Predictor	Posterior mean coefficient	95 % Confidence interval	MCMCglmm P value	Odds ratioa
A	Intercept	−2.64	−3.63, −1.74	<0.001
(DIC: 474.2)	Same sex	−0.27	−0.83, 0.26	0.346	0.76
	Same birth year	−0.46	−1.83, 0.81	0.502	0.63
	Same natal group	0.09	−1.07, 1.26	0.879	1.09
	Same group	1.04	0.1, 2.16	0.048	2.83
	Same sampling month	0.05	−0.59, 0.67	0.879	1.05
	Same sampling method	0.05	−0.78, 0.8	0.88	1.05
B	Intercept	−2.87	−4.12, −1.64	<0.001
(DIC: 305.96)	Same sex	−0.34	−1.04, 0.35	0.354	0.71
	Same birth year	−2.36	−5.2, 0.15	0.037	0.09
	Same natal group	0.55	−1.24, 2.38	0.565	1.73
	Space-use sharing (UDOI)	0.43	0.07, 0.78	0.021	1.54
	Same sampling month	0.22	−0.65, 1.04	0.585	1.25
	Same sampling method	−0.12	−1.06, 0.9	0.831	0.89
C	Intercept	−2.91	−4.22, −1.71	<0.001
(DIC: 305.87)	Same sex	−0.31	−1.05, 0.37	0.386	0.73
	Same birth year	−2.31	−5.15, 0.18	0.046	0.1
	Same natal group	0.32	−1.8, 2.16	0.741	1.38
	Intergroup encounter rate	0.46	0.12, 0.81	0.015	1.58
	Same sampling month	0.18	−0.7, 1	0.665	1.2
	Same sampling method	−0.05	−1, 1.02	0.949	0.95

Models B and C included only the 8 neighboring groups and excluded ties within the same social group. UDOI and intergroup encounter rate were z-transformed. Significant P values (<0.05) are printed in italics

^aThe odds ratio is the multiplicative increase in the odds of sharing the same or a closely related ST with each unit increase in the explanatory variable