Table 1. P values of regression models using different input variables (Chla, cyanobacteria, 16S rDNA, and mcyA) with different delaying time for six sites.

P value of regression model as Yt = αXt−τ + β		τ = 0 week	τ = 1 week	τ = 2 weeks	τ = 3 weeks	τ = 4 weeks
Site 1	X: Chla	0.159	0.689	0.050	0.209	0.204
	X: ln(cyanobacteria)	0.074	0.550	0.130	0.267	0.359
	X: ln(16s rDNA)	0.006	0.685	0.308	0.662	0.237
	X: ln(mcyA)	0.092	0.232	0.030α = 0.035β = −0.139	0.170	0.314
Site 2	X: Chla	0.597	0.847	0.251	0.601	0.673
	X: ln(cyanobacteria)	0.138	0.465	0.926	0.411	0.010
	X: ln(16s rDNA)	0.386	0.606	0.048	0.283	0.720
	X: ln(mcyA)	0.622	0.037	0.008α = 0.093β = −0.852	0.036	0.294
Site 3	X: Chla	0.139	0.809	0.142	0.494	0.055
	X: ln(cyanobacteria)	0.283	0.836	0.798	0.171	0.735
	X: ln(16s rDNA)	0.518	0.627	0.415	0.046	0.208
	X: ln(mcyA)	0.093	0.028α = 0.059β = −0.475	0.065	0.108	0.830
Site 4	X: Chla	0.040	0.438	0.078	0.794	0.307
	X: ln(cyanobacteria)	0.688	0.443	0.158	0.493	0.714
	X: ln(16s rDNA)	0.180	0.492	0.189	0.903	0.702
	X: ln(mcyA)	0.170	0.039α = 0.037β = −0.135	0.427	0.723	0.466
Site 5	X: Chla	0.343	0.546	0.171	0.387	0.740
	X: ln(cyanobacteria)	0.381	0.319	0.132	0.103	0.289
	X: ln(16s rDNA)	0.393	0.461	0.204	0.811	0.050
	X: ln(mcyA)	0.373	0.099	0.005α = 0.071β = −0.554	0.124	0.037
Site 6	X: Chla	0.897	0.111	0.039	0.094	0.638
	X: ln(cyanobacteria)	0.082	0.150	1.000	0.690	0.635
	X: ln(16s rDNA)	0.601	0.190	0.061	0.010	0.142
	X: ln(mcyA)	0.295	0.051	0.004α = 0.072β = −0.732	0.022	0.079