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Urn composition in Studies 1 and 2.
| Study 1 | Study 2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State (Prob) | Left Urn | Right Urn | State (Prob) | Left Urn | Right Urn |
| Up (1/2) | ● ● ○ ○ ○ ○ | ● ● ● ● ○ ○ | Up (1/2) | ● ● ● ● ○ ○ | ● ● ● ● ● ● |
| Down (1/2) | ● ● ● ● ○ ○ | ● ● ○ ○ ○ ○ | Down (1/2) | ● ● ○ ○ ○ ○ | ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ |
An unknown state of the world (Up, Down) with a known prior 1/2 determines the composition of two urns (Left, Right) containing six balls each (black or white). All winning balls paid the same independently of which urn they came from.
