Figure 3.

Reproduction error and model parameters. Root-mean-squared error (left panels) and its representation on a quarter circle $\sqrt{Var\left(r\right)}$ vs. BIAS_r (right panels) are displayed for the optimal memory weight a_min conditioned on E (T)∕Var (T) (A), the inverse SNR of measurement σ_m∕A_m (B), the drift ratio A_m∕A_r (C), and the noise level σ_r during reproduction (D). Solid lines show the predictions of a_min for different values of the respective ratio or parameter. Small numbers mark the range of values. Large dots mark the theoretical predictions from Equation (19) and correspond to the memory weights a taken in Figure 1. Colors as in Figure 1. In (A) also simulation results are displayed for the three stimulus ranges from Figure 1 and different values of a (small dots, fainter colors correspond to smaller values of a). The simulations confirm the theoretical predictions for the optimal values a_min.