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. 2016 Feb 16;13(2):e1001958. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001958

Fig 3. Simulation of national EV-A71 vaccination and corresponding change in CV-A16 incidence.

Fig 3

(A–C) Relative change in incidence of EV-A71 (green) and CV-A16 (red) (y-axis) by year (x-axis) for 10 y following vaccine initiation compared to pre-vaccination equilibria (shown at year 0) in the two-serotype model, ignoring seasonality in βs. The circles indicate the output from the deterministic simulation, with error bars indicating the 5th and 95th percentiles of 500 stochastic simulations. Vaccine scenarios explored: (A) broad monovalent EV-A71 vaccine (administered at birth) achieving 90% coverage, (B) narrow monovalent EV-A71 vaccine achieving 90% coverage, and (C) narrow bivalent EV-A71, CV-A16 vaccine achieving 90% coverage. (D) Duration and magnitude of change in CV-A16 yearly incidence compared to pre-vaccination equilibria, as a function of narrow monovalent EV-A71 vaccine coverage (0%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, and 100%). Calculated with α = 0.95 and the highest province-specific maximum likelihood estimates of cross-protection (k infection = 22 wk and δinfection = 1).