Table 3. PVA predictions for different starting populations and tourism intensities.
| Species (& References) | Y/i/Ni | Tourism | r ± SD | PE | N ± SE | TE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheetah | 100/500/150 | None | 0.104 ± 0.184 | 0.000 | 125 ± 24 | 0.0 |
| Acinonyx jubatus1 | (also 80, 400) | Low | 0.131 ± 0.184 | 0.000 | 128 ± 23 | 0.0 |
| [36] | Med | 0.170 ± 0.181 | 0.000 | 136 ± 23 | 0.0 | |
| High | 0.225 ± 0.174 | 0.000 | 142 ± 25 | 0.0 | ||
| Egyptian vulture | 50/200/470 | None | 0.039 ± 0.122 | 0.000 | 1141 ± 110 | 0.0 |
| Neophron percnopterus1 | (also 116, 322, | Low | 0.049 ± 0.118 | 0.000 | 1177 ± 89 | 0.0 |
| [34] | 544, 608) | Med | 0.061 ± 0.111 | 0.000 | 1215 ± 55 | 0.0 |
| High | 0.070 ± 0.106 | 0.000 | 1235 ± 33 | 0.0 | ||
| Golden lion tamarin | 100/500/200 | None | 0.057 ± 0.160 | 0.006 | 159 ± 37 | 32.3 |
| Leontopithecus rosalia | Low | 0.052 ± 0.155 | 0.000 | 157 ± 34 | 51.5 | |
| [42] | Med | 0.057 ± 0.154 | 0.000 | 180 ± 30 | 0.0 | |
| High | 0.040 ± 0.148 | 0.000 | 195 ± 40 | 69.0 | ||
| 100/500/40 | None | 0.071 ± 0.138 | 0.012 | 32 ± 7 | 84.3 | |
| (also 10) | Low | 0.089 ± 0.141 | 0.000 | 35 ± 6 | 0.0 | |
| Med | 0.111 ± 0.148 | 0.000 | 39 ± 6 | 35.0 | ||
| High | 0.090 ± 0.155 | 0.000 | 43 ± 7 | 0.0 | ||
| Great green macaw | 100/500/210 | None | 0.036 ± 0.088 | 0.000 | 293 ± 12 | 0.0 |
| Ara ambiguus | (also 80*, 350*) | Low | 0.039 ± 0.087 | 0.000 | 298 ± 12 | 0.0 |
| [44] | Med | 0.043 ± 0.085 | 0.000 | 315 ± 9 | 0.0 | |
| High | 0.050 ± 0.082 | 0.000 | 346 ± 9 | 0.0 | ||
| Hoolock gibbon | 100/500/50 | None | 0.006 ± 0.058 | 0.004 | 35 ± 9 | 90.0 |
| Hoolock hoolock | (also 100*, 200) | Low | 0.007 ± 0.054 | 0.004 | 41 ± 10 | 90.5 |
| [41] | Med | 0.008 ± 0.052 | 0.004 | 47 ± 10 | 91.5 | |
| High | 0.012 ± 0.049 | 0.000 | 50 ± 7 | 0.0 | ||
| African penguin | 25/100/2240 | None | -0.040 ± 0.112 | 0.000 | 857 ± 250 | 0.0 |
| Spheniscus demersus | Low | -0.039 ± 0.112 | 0.000 | 883 ± 234 | 0.0 | |
| [45,46,54] | Med | -0.035 ± 0.111 | 0.000 | 971 ± 253 | 0.0 | |
| High | -0.012 ± 0.105 | 0.000 | 1708 ± 438 | 0.0 | ||
| 25/100/4480 | None | 0.057 ± 0.104 | 0.000 | 14602 ± 1966 | 0.0 | |
| Low | 0.056 ± 0.107 | 0.000 | 14569 ± 2262 | 0.0 | ||
| Med | 0.056 ± 0.107 | 0.000 | 14690 ± 2226 | 0.0 | ||
| High | 0.062 ± 0.101 | 0.000 | 15698 ± 1896 | 0.0 | ||
| Orangutan | 1000/500/500 | None | 0.003 ± 0.049 | 1.000 | 0 ± 0 | 21.3 |
| Pongo abelii1 | (also 50, 1000) | Low | 0.014 ± 0.064 | 1.000 | 0 ± 0 | 26.3 |
| [35] | Med | 0.013 ± 0.052 | 0.000 | 484 ± 16 | 0.0 | |
| High | 0.004 ± 0.032 | 0.000 | 4237 ± 207 | 0.0 | ||
| Sea lion | 100/500/11200 | None | -0.010 ± 0.051 | 0.206 | 7421 ± 5790 | 86.1 |
| Phocarctos hookeri | (also 2000*, | Low | -0.015 ± 0.052 | 0.330 | 5681 ± 4645 | 85.1 |
| [37,55] | 6500* | Med | -0.026 ± 0.054 | 0.768 | 3041 ± 2031 | 78.7 |
| High | -0.037 ± 0.055 | 0.990 | 1374 ± 509 | 64.3 | ||
| Wild dog | 100/1000/8 | None | 0.175 ± 0.398 | 0.142 | 15 ± 7 | 15.2 |
| Lycaon pictus | (also 15*, 25*) | Low | 0.221 ± 0.398 | 0.002 | 20 ± 4 | 26.2 |
| [48,49] | Med | 0.231 ± 0.398 | 0.000 | 23 ± 4 | 35.7 | |
| High | 0.310 ± 0.373 | 0.000 | 29 ± 3 | 55.2 |
Y, number of years models run; i, number of iterations; Ni, initial population size; r, mean annual rate of population change; PE, probability of extinction; N, mean final population size; TE, mean time to extinction. Tourism = None, baseline models as per source referenced; Low, Med, High, parameters as per Table 2.
1 Statistics shown for selected Ni only; results for additional Ni, shown as “(also as Ni1,Ni2,…)” in column 2, were similar.
*, additional Ni added by authors of this study; all other Ni are from PVAs as originally published.