Table 3. Parameter estimates of the best-supported models analysing the within-cycle and within-year dynamics in the abundance of PUUV infected bank voles, infection prevalence and seroconversion rate.
| Dependent variable/source of variation | Within-cycle dynamics | Within-year dynamics | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abundance of Infected | |||||||
| Parametric coefficients | Estimate (SE) | z | P value | Estimate (SE) | z | P value | |
| intercept | −4.15 (0.24) | −17.1 | <0.001 | −3.85 (0.15) | −24.9 | <0.001 | |
| cycle ID | 2004–2006 | −0.02 (0.25) | −0.1 | 0.95 | |||
| 2007–2009 | −0.06 (0.71) | −0.1 | 0.938 | ||||
| cycle phase | peak | 0.40 (0.17) | 2.4 | 0.016 | |||
| low | −2.67 (0.36) | −7.5 | <0.001 | ||||
| Smooth terms | Edf (rdf) | χ2 | P value | Edf (rdf) | χ2 | P value | |
| cycle month by cycle ID | 2001–2003 | 1 (1) | 55 | <0.001 | |||
| 2004–2006 | 7.08 (7.08) | 190 | <0.001 | ||||
| 2007–2009 | 5.70 (5.70) | 124 | <0.001 | ||||
| month by cycle phase | increase | 2.08 (2.08) | 13.6 | 0.001 | |||
| peak | 2.08 (2.08) | 22.7 | <0.001 | ||||
| low | 1.95 (1.95) | 4.4 | 0.105 | ||||
| Random effects | σ2 | sd | σ2 | sd | |||
| site | within cycle 2001–2003 | 0.64 | 0.80 | ||||
| within cycle 2004–2006 | 0.31 | 0.56 | |||||
| within cycle 2007–2009 | 1.34 | 1.16 | |||||
| observation | 0.70 | 0.84 | |||||
| site | 0.09 | 0.31 | |||||
| Infection prevalence | |||||||
| Parametric coefficients | Estimate (SE) | z | P value | Estimate (SE) | z | P value | |
| intercept | −1.11 (0.15) | −7.3 | <0.001 | −0.85 (0.22) | −3.8 | <0.001 | |
| cycle phase | peak | 0.19 (0.30) | 0.6 | 0.517 | |||
| low | −0.77 (0.36) | −2.1 | 0.032 | ||||
| Smooth terms | Edf (rdf) | χ2 | P value | ||||
| cycle month/month | 6.82 (6.82) | 41.7 | <0.001 | 3.07 (3.07) | 31.1 | <0.001 | |
| Random effects | σ2 | sd | σ2 | sd | |||
| site | within cycle 2001–2003 | 0.75 | 0.87 | ||||
| within cycle 2004–2006 | 0.98 | 0.99 | |||||
| within cycle 2007–2009 | 1.42 | 1.19 | |||||
| observation | 0.43 | 0.65 | |||||
| Seroconversion rate | |||||||
| Parametric coefficients | Estimate (SE) | z | P value | Estimate (SE) | z | P value | |
| intercept | −6.06 (1.28) | −4.7 | <0.001 | −5.31 (0.14) | −37.4 | <0.001 | |
| cycle ID | 2004–2006 | 0.20 (1.30) | 0.2 | 0.88 | |||
| 2007–2009 | 1.27 (1.85) | 0.7 | 0.497 | ||||
| cycle phase | peak | −0.27 (0.19) | −1.4 | 0.161 | |||
| low | −2.19 (1.41) | −1.5 | 0.128 | ||||
| Smooth terms | Edf (rdf) | χ2 | P value | ||||
| cycle month by cycle ID | 2001–2003 | 1.43 (1.76) | 3.8 | 0.036 | |||
| 2004–2006 | 2.12 (2.71) | 2 | 0.129 | ||||
| 2007–2009 | 4.85 (5.53) | 3.5 | 0.007 | ||||
Edf = Estimated degrees of freedom; rdf = residual degrees of freedom; σ2 = the variance attributable to random effect.
sd = standard deviation of σ2.