Table 3.
Projected incidence (%) of ESRD in the United States for hypothetical patient profiles in the absence of kidney donation
| Scenario | Age | Race | eGFR (ml/min/ 1.73m2) | ACR (mg/g) | SBP (mmHg) | Smoking | 15-Year Projections (95% CI) | Model-Based Lifetime Projections (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | Black | 115 | 4 | 130 | Never | 0.1% (0.1%–0.1%) | 1.9% (1.2%–2.5%) |
| 2 | 20 | Black | 115 | 4 | 130 | Current | 0.2% (0.1%–0.2%) | 3.4% (2.0%–4.8%) |
| 3 | 20 | Black | 115 | 4 | 140* | Current | 0.3% (0.1%–0.4%) | 5.4% (2.9%–8.5%) |
| 4 | 20 | Black | 115 | 30 | 140* | Current | 0.7% (0.2%–1.5%) | 13.3% (4.8%–27.0%) |
| 5 | 60 | White | 80 | 4 | 140 | Never | 0.2% (0.1%–0.3%) | 0.4% (0.2%–0.6%) |
| 6 | 60 | White | 60 | 4 | 140 | Never | 0.4% (0.2%–0.6%) | 0.7% (0.3%–1.2%) |
| 7 | 60 | White | 60 | 4 | 140* | Never | 0.5% (0.2%–0.8%) | 1.0% (0.5%–1.7%) |
| 8 | 60 | White | 60 | 30 | 140* | Current | 2.2% (1.1%–3.6%) | 4.4% (2.1%–7.0%) |
Taking anti-hypertensive medications. Abbreviations: eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate (ml/min/1.73 m2); ACR, random urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (mg/g), to convert from mg/g to mg/mmol divide by 8.84; CI, confidence interval; SBP, systolic blood pressure (mmHg). Online risk tool available at www.transplantmodels.com/esrdrisk. Lifetime projections are based on 15 years of follow-up data and calibrated to the incidence of ESRD in the US low-risk population, thus are imprecise. All estimates reflect the population average for latent characteristics; individual risk may be higher or lower. Projections are for a man of specified characteristics with body-mass index 25 kg/m2 and no diabetes. Confidence intervals were obtained from simulations sampled from the distribution of meta-analyzed hazard ratios.