Table 1.

An OUM model describing the evolution of niche overlap in the Parulidae consistently received the greatest support estimated using AICc, except for precipitation variables. (Parameter estimates and their variance are given for each of the models and the different combinations of climatic variables. OUM, multiple-mean Ornstein–Uhlenbeck; OU, single mean Ornstein–Uhlenbeck; BMS, multiple-rate Brownian motion; BM, single-rate Brownian motion. α = evolutionary rate, σ² = variance, θ = phenotypic mean.)

	model parameters (±variance)
	Δ AICc	Wi	α	σ2	θ migrants	θ residents	stationary variance
all variables
OUM	0	0.7	4.80 ± 0.15	0.24 ± 3.9 × 10−3	0.41 ± 3.3 × 10−6	0.35 ± 3.4 × 10−6	0.03
OU	1.65	0.3	4.89 ± 0.10	0.25 ± 0.001	0.38 ± 0.02		0.03
BMS	107.09	0		0.003 ± 0.001	0.36 ± 0.20
BM	115.02	0		0.003 ± 0.001	0.37 ± 1.6 × 10−5
temperature
OUM	0	0.75	4.57 ± 1.09	0.25 ± 0.003	0.43 ± 1.1 × 10−6	0.36 ± 1.0 × 10−6	0.03
OU	2.17	0.25	0.28 ± 0.01	0.01 ± 0.001	0.39 ± 0.02		0.02
BM	70	0		0.002 ± 4.8 × 10−7	0.46 ± 0.17
BMS	70.46	0		0.002 ± 3.5 × 10−8	0.46 ± 8.8 × 10−6
topography
OUM	0	0.57	0.79 ± 0.09	0.029 ± 0.001	0.62 ± 4.9 × 10−6	0.67 ± 3.9 × 10−6	0.02
OU	0.52	0.43	0.44 ± 0.01	0.02 ± 3.9 × 10−6	0.65 ± 0.01		0.02
BM	58.89	0		0.001 3.9 × 10−4	0.64 ± 0.13
BMS	60.27	0		0.001 ± 7.3 × 10−9	0.65 ± 3.9 × 10−6
temp + topo
OUM	0	0.99	4.66 ± 0.68	0.25 ± 0.002	0.67 ± 1.9 × 10−6	0.53 ± 1.7 × 10−6	0.03
OU	13.42	0.01	4.86 ± 0.59	0.31 ± 0.002	0.59 ± 0.01		0.03
BMS	112.61	0		0.002 ± 9.1 × 10−7	0.68 ± 1.2 × 10−4
BM	116.25	0		0.003 ± 7.5 × 10−7	0.67 ± 0.21
precipitation
OU	0	0.74	0.26 ± 0.01	0.018 ± 0.001	0.29 ± 0.02		0.03
OUM	2.07	0.26	0.29 ± 1.6 × 10−2	0.02 ± 7.6 × 10−5	0.29 ± 1.9 × 10−5	0.32 ± 1.9 × 10−5	0.56
BM	72.65	0		0.003 ± 0.001	0.23 ± 0.19
BMS	74.19	0		0.003 ± 0.001	0.23 ± 4.1 × 10−6