Table 11:

Calibrated Monthly Transition Probabilities, Natural History of Stroke

Transition	Probability Per Cycle Per Month	References
Functional independence to disability
4–6 months	0.0321	42,43,49,50
7–12 months	0.0220	42,43,49,50
13–24 months	0.0134	42,43,49,50
25–36 months	0.0111	42,43,49,50
37–48 months	0.0093	42,43,49,50
49–60 months	0.0077	42,43,49,50
Disability to functional independence
4–6 months	0.0372	49
7–12 months	0.0156	49
13–60 months	0	Assumptiona
Functional independence to death
4–12 months	0.0080	42,43,49,50
13–24 months	0.0034	42,43,49,50
25–36 months	0.0039	42,43,49,50
37–48 months	0.0043	42,43,49,50
49–60 months	0.0047	42,43,49,50
Disability to death
4–12 months	0.0229	42,43,49,50
13–24 months	0.0096	42,43,49,50
25–36 months	0.0108	42,43,49,50
37–48 months	0.0122	42,43,49,50
49–60 months	0.0131	42,43,49,50

^aEvidence suggested that the chance of patients recovering from disability to functional independence 1 year after an acute stroke was small.⁴⁹