Table 6. Comparison of the performances of the ARIMA model and ARIMAX model.
MAE | MAPE | RMSE | U95-L95 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARIMA | ARIMAX | ARIMA | ARIMAX | ARIMA | ARIMAX | ARIMA | ARIMAX | ||
Modelling Performance | Primary | 0.0248 | 0.0109 | 0.05 | 0.022 | 0.0331 | 0.0134 | 0.1317 | 0.0552 |
Secondary | 0.0146 | 0.0114 | 0.0464 | 0.0356 | 0.0199 | 0.0143 | 0.0791 | 0.0644 | |
Tertiary | 0.0013 | 0.0009 | 0.1115 | 0.0771 | 0.0016 | 0.0011 | 0.0063 | 0.0046 | |
Latent | 0.0469 | 0.0227 | 0.0621 | 0.0294 | 0.0601 | 0.0288 | 0.2389 | 0.113 | |
Congenital | 0.0032 | 0.0027 | 0.0592 | 0.0492 | 0.0041 | 0.0033 | 0.0163 | 0.0132 | |
Testing Performance | Primary | 0.0754 | 0.0393 | 0.1172 | 0.0598 | 0.0775 | 0.0419 | 0.1476 | 0.0579 |
Secondary | 0.0183 | 0.0201 | 0.0465 | 0.0504 | 0.0195 | 0.0216 | 0.0947 | 0.0782 | |
Tertiary | 0.001 | 0.0015 | 0.0534 | 0.0802 | 0.0012 | 0.039 | 0.0076 | 0.0046 | |
Latent | 0.1237 | 0.0795 | 0.0958 | 0.0561 | 0.1463 | 0.0861 | 0.2627 | 0.1815 | |
Congenital | 0.0137 | 0.0089 | 0.2054 | 0.1335 | 0.0149 | 0.0097 | 0.0181 | 0.0147 |