Fig 7. Incidence rate vs. sensitivity, maximum-likelihood estimate and plausible parameter range, Ugandan sex workers.

(A) Initial prevalence. (B) continuously M. genitalium-positive participants over time. (C) Both data items combined. Thick, black dot: maximum-likelihood estimate (MLE) for the incidence rate (λ_low = 28%p.a.) and sensitivity (56%) with recovery rate fixed at γ = 0.80p.a. (from London-student data); thin, black contours: equal likelihood; colored areas: white indicates maximum likelihood, red indicated low likelihood; thick, dashed, blue contour: 95% CI of the MLE; thick, red contour: parameter areas where the model is consistent with the empirical data (α<0.05).