Table 4. Sensitivity of epidemiologic parameters to mortality rates from malaria, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis during response to the 2014–2015 Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.
Parameter | PRCC* |
||
---|---|---|---|
Guinea | Liberia | Sierra Leone | |
Malaria | |||
Death from severe malaria with treatment | −0.594 | −0.751 | −0.587 |
Death from severe malaria without treatment | 0.822 | 0.626 | 0.411 |
Progressing from uncomplicated to severe malaria given no treatment | 0.556 | 0.854 | 0.738 |
Death from uncomplicated malaria without treatment | −0.529 | −0.785 | −0.477 |
Fever cases attributable to malaria | 0.470 | 0.701 | 0.415 |
Spontaneous recovery from uncomplicated malaria | 0.173 | 0.305 | 0.289 |
Developing fever within 2 weeks at age <1 | 0.333 | 0.085 | −0.018 |
Developing fever within 2 weeks at age 1–2 | −0.145 | −0.107 | 0.182 |
Developing fever within 2 weeks at age 2–3 | −0.044 | −0.009 | −0.059 |
Developing fever within 2 weeks at age 3–4 | 0.139 | 0.287 | −0.045 |
Developing fever within 2 weeks at age 4–5 | −0.071 | −0.315 | −0.342 |
Treatment coverage for severe malaria | 0.260 | −0.093 | 0.444 |
Death from uncomplicated malaria with treatment | −0.396 | −0.344 | −0.411 |
Treatment coverage for malaria before Ebola outbreak for age <1 | 0.038 | −0.104 | 0.211 |
Treatment coverage for malaria before Ebola outbreak for ages 1–2 | 0.139 | −0.013 | −0.163 |
Treatment coverage for malaria before Ebola outbreak for ages 2–3 | 0.071 | 0.143 | 0.313 |
Treatment coverage for malaria before Ebola outbreak for ages 3–4 | −0.149 | −0.030 | −0.061 |
Treatment coverage for malaria before Ebola outbreak for ages 4–5 |
−0.455 |
−0.662 |
−0.239 |
HIV/AIDS | |||
Death while receiving ART and CD4 count <200 cells/mm3 | −0.679 | −0.734 | −0.649 |
Treatment coverage for HIV/AIDS before Ebola outbreak | 0.381 | 0.474 | 0.467 |
Death while receiving no treatment and CD4 count <200 cells/mm3 | 0.494 | 0.683 | 0.693 |
Population with CD4 count >500 cells/mm3 | 0.244 | 0.604 | 0.397 |
Population with CD4 count 350 to 499 cells/mm3 | −0.168 | −0.062 | −0.165 |
Population with CD4 count 200 to 349 cells/mm3 | −0.220 | 0.042 | 0.084 |
Death while receiving ART with CD4 count 350 to 499 cells/mm3 | −0.204 | −0.271 | −0.313 |
Death while receiving ART with CD4 count 200 to 349 cells/mm3 | −0.329 | −0.451 | −0.320 |
Death while receiving no treatment and CD4 count 350 to 499 cells/mm3 | −0.295 | −0.438 | −0.367 |
Death while receiving no treatment and CD4 count 200 to 349 cells/mm3 |
0.107 |
0.116 |
−0.088 |
Tuberculosis | |||
Treatment coverage for tuberculosis before Ebola outbreak | 0.916 | 0.894 | 0.946 |
Death while receiving treatment for MDR-TB | 0.134 | −0.243 | 0.148 |
Death while receiving no treatment for tuberculosis | 0.255 | −0.138 | −0.002 |
Death while receiving treatment for DS-TB | 0.030 | −0.211 | 0.075 |
Clearing infection after treatment default | 0.148 | 0.463 | 0.174 |
MDR–TB cases out of all new TB cases | 0.154 | −0.057 | −0.214 |
Unsuccessful tuberculosis treatment (failure or default) for DS-TB | −0.037 | −0.521 | 0.009 |
Treatment failure for DS-TB out of all unsuccessful treatment | −0.226 | −0.479 | 0.177 |
*Partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs) were used to determine the association between the probability of mortality from the studied diseases and input parameters of the model. The PRCC of each parameter was statistically significant (p<0.001).