Table 1. Median predicted proportion of cattle vaccinated during mass FMD vaccination in Turkey [with 95% PI in brackets], allowing for incomplete coverage of eligible cattle assessed six months after the last round of vaccination**.
Number of doses | 0 | 1 | 2 | ≥3 | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Evaluated 25th Sept 2012† | Months since last vaccination | Unvaccinated | 22% [21.9–22.2] | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22% [21.9–22.2%] |
6 | 0% | 10.4% [10.4–10.5] | 13.1% [13.1–13.15] | 39.4% [39.2–39.6] | 62.9% [62.7–63.1] | ||
12 | 0% | 3.19% [3.18–3.2] | 1.87% [1.8–1.9] | 6.7% [6.6–6.8] | 11.8% [11.6–11.9] | ||
≥18 | 0% | 0.77% [0.75–0.79] | 0.7% [0.7–0.7] | 1.85% [1.7–1.9] | 3.3% [3.1–3.4] | ||
Age [months] | <6 | 13.1% [12.9–13.2] | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.1% [12.9–13.2] | |
6 -<12 | 6.8% [6.7–6.9] | 4.4% [4.3–4.5] | 0% | 0% | 11.2% [11.1–11.4] | ||
12 -<18 | 1.5% [1.4–1.6] | 6.1% [6–6.3] | 6.1% [6–6.2] | 0% | 13.7% [13.6–13.9] | ||
18 -<24 | 0.5% [0.5–0.6] | 2.8% [2.7–2.9] | 6% [5.9–6.1] | 3% [2.9–3.1] | 12.3% [12.2–12.5] | ||
≥24 | 0.1% [0.1–0.2] | 1% [0.9–1.1] | 3.5% [3.4–3.6] | 44.9% [44.8–45] | 49.6%* | ||
Total | 22% [21.9–22.2] | 14.5% [14.4–14.6] | 15.6% [15.5–15.7] | 47.9% [47.8–48.1] | 100% | ||
If all eligible cattle always vaccinated | 18.5% [18.4–18.6] | 81.5% [81.4–81.6] | 72.1% [72–72.2] | 55.9% [55.7–56] | Eligible that day 96.6% [96.5–96.65] | ||
Evaluated 25th March 2013‡ | Months since last vaccination | Unvaccinated | 20% [19.8–20.2] | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20% [19.8–20.2] |
6 | 0% | 14.4% [14.2–14.6] | 10.3% [10.2–10.5] | 41.3% [41.1–41.5] | 66% [65.8–66.3] | ||
12 | 0% | 2.4% [2.3–2.4] | 2.4% [2.3–2.4] | 6.7% [6.5–6.7] | 11.4% [11.2–11.6] | ||
≥18 | 0% | 0.7% [0.7–0.8] | 0.4% [0.4–0.45] | 1.4% [1.4–1.5] | 2.6% [2.5–2.7] | ||
Age [months] | <6 | 11.2% [11–11.3] | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.2% [11–11.3] | |
6 -<12 | 5.6% [5.5–5.7] | 7.5% [7.4–7.7 | 0% | 0% | 13.2% [13–13.3] | ||
12 -<18 | 1.8% [1.7–1.8] | 6.6% [6.5–6.7] | 3.8% [3.7–3.9] | 0% | 12.1% [12–12.3] | ||
18 -<24 | 0.4% [0.4–0.5] | 2.5% [2.5–2.6] | 5.9% [5.8–6] | 5% [4.9–5.1] | 13.9% [13.8–14] | ||
≥24 | 0.1% [0.1–0.2] | 1.1% [1–1.1] | 3.6% [3.5–3.7] | 44.8% [44.7–44.9] | 49.6* | ||
Total | 20% [19.8–20.2] | 17.7% [17.5–17.9] | 13.3% [13.2–13.5] | 49.8% [49.7–50] | 100% | ||
If all eligible cattle always vaccinated | 14.5% [14.4–14.6] | 85.5% [85.4–85.6] | 69.9% [69.8–70] | 60% [59.8–60.1] | Eligible that day 94.7% [94.6–94.8] |
Autumn revaccination (25th September 2012) would vaccinate 74.5% [95% PI: 74.3–74.8%] of eligible cattle, spring revaccination (25th March 2013) would vaccinate 73.2% [95% PI: 73–73.4%] of eligible cattle. The median total does not necessarily equal the total of the subcategory medians. This, along with rounding, resulted in minor discrepancies with margin totals.
*Fixed sampling proportion used from census data.
**District level coverage was described by a Betapert distribution (minimum = 40%, maximum = 100%, most likely = 80%).
†i.e. Assessed on day of autumn 2012 vaccination BEFORE vaccination performed.
‡i.e. Assessed on day of spring 2013 vaccination BEFORE vaccination performed.