Figure 3. Receiver operating characteristic curve of grant percentile score as a predictor of citation productivity (low/high).

Area under the curve (AUC) = 0.54 (95% confidence interval: 0.53–0.54) for citation productivity greater than the median. An AUC of 1.0 corresponds to a perfect test; an AUC of 0.5 indicates performance equivalent to random chance alone.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13323.005