Table 2. Three Approaches to Clinician Prediction of Survival.

Aspects	Temporal Question10,32	Surprise Question29,30	Probabilistic Question10,32
Question	How long will this patient live?	Would I be surprised if this patient died in (specific time frame)?	What is the probability of survival within a specific time frame
Answer	Specific time frame	Yes or no	0% to 100% (at 10% increments)
Definition of an accurate response	If estimated time frame was ± 33% of actual survival	If “no” answer and patient died within specified time frame or If “yes” answer patient remained alive by specified time frame	If answered ≤ 30% probability and patient died within specified time frame or If answered ≥ 70% probability and patient remained alive by specified time frame
Accuracy	20%–30%	76%–88% (1 year time frame)	53%–91% (6 months to 24-h time frames)
Advantage	Simple, quick Intuitive to provide Understand	Simple, quick Intuitive to understand	Simple, quick
Disadvantage	Subjective Unclear if time frame represents the average/median, maximal or minimal May be difficult emotionally to provide a specific number	Subjective Time frame dependent The threshold for “surprise” may vary by individual Yes/no answer only	Subjective Time frame dependent Probability needs to be interpreted