Figure 3.

Annual spending on VMMC programmes and the associated change in prevalence of circumcised men. In both optimized scenarios (green and blue curves), implementation constraints (where programme scale-up/down is restricted to a maximum of 30% per year) and ethical constraints (where ART and PMTCT funding cannot be decreased) are applied. In the scenario represented by the green curve, total annual spending is fixed at 2014 levels. In this case, a large initial scale-up of the VMMC programme is not attainable because of the limited availability of unreserved funding and restrictions on programme scale-up/down. Thus, the optimal solution does not prioritize this programme. In the scenario represented by the blue curve, total annual spending is optimally determined such that total spending across the 2015 to 2025 period is the same as in all other scenarios. In this case, total annual spending is initially increased to allow for the initial rapid scale-up of the VMMC programme. Although VMMC spending is later rapidly scaled down, the proportion of circumcised men in this scenario remains considerably higher than in other scenarios.