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. 2016 Feb 29;9:112. doi: 10.1186/s13071-016-1403-y

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© Escobar et al. 2016

Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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Fig. 3 — Comparison of observed versus predicted Chikungunya cases in Curacao and the United States. Incomplete, intermittent, and delay in reports generated inaccurate model calibration with consequent incorrect predictions. Top: United States. Consistent patterns of report submission allowed us to anticipate imported cases with numbers predicted close to real numbers of cases. Bottom: Curacao. While observed reports (red line) showed low increases in the first two weeks of the outbreak, the country was characterized by dramatic increases of cases with irregular reporting accumulating numbers of cases such that we could not generate correct forecasts for the following six (purple), five (blue), four (dark green), and three months (light green)