Table 3.
Optimal 5-year (Y1 through Y5) sequences of interventions for the baseline efficacy scenario
| Geographic region |
Number of districts |
Initial population state |
Y1 intervention (end pop. state) |
Y2 intervention (end pop. state) |
Y3 intervention (end pop. state) |
Y4 intervention (end pop. state) |
Y5 intervention (end pop. state) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (D, L) | 500 | (60, 15, 25) | ACT 60 % | None | None | None | None |
| (90, 0, 10) | (95, 0, 5) | (100, 0, 0) | (100, 0, 0) | (100, 0, 0) | |||
| (D, M) | 500 | (60, 15, 25) | ACT 60 % | None | None | None | None |
| (90, 0, 10) | (95, 0, 5) | (100, 0, 0) | (100, 0, 0) | (100, 0, 0) | |||
| (D, H) | 500 | (60, 15, 25) | ACT 60 % | None | None | None | None |
| (90, 0, 10) | (95, 0, 5) | (100, 0, 0) | (100, 0, 0) | (100, 0, 0) | |||
| (M, L) | 500 | (15, 15, 70) | LLIN_ACT 60 % | ACT_IRS 60 % | ACT_IRS 60 % | ACT_IRS 60 % | ACT_IRS 60 % |
| (65, 5, 30) | (80, 5, 15) | (85, 5, 10) | (85, 5, 10) | (85, 5, 10) | |||
| (M, M) | 500 | (15, 15, 70) | LLIN_ACT 60 % | ACT_IRS 60 % | ACT_IRS 60 % | ACT_IRS 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % |
| (65, 5, 30) | (80, 5, 15) | (85, 5, 10) | (85, 5, 10) | (75, 10, 15) | |||
| (M, H) | 500 | (15, 15, 70) | LLIN_ACT 60 % | ACT_IRS 60 % | ACT_IRS 60 % | ACT_IRS 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % |
| (65, 5, 30) | (80, 5, 15) | (85, 5, 10) | (85, 5, 10) | (75, 10, 15) | |||
| (W, L) | 395 | (10, 15, 75) | LLIN_ACT 20 % | ACT_IRS 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % |
| (25, 10, 65) | (65, 5, 30) | (60, 10, 30) | (60, 10, 30) | (60, 10, 30) | |||
| (W, L) | 105 | (10, 15, 75) | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % |
| (60, 5, 35) | (60, 10, 30) | (60, 10, 30) | (60, 10, 30) | (60, 10, 30) | |||
| (W, M) | 276 | (10, 15, 75) | None | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % |
| (10, 15, 75) | (60, 5, 35) | (60, 10, 30) | (60, 10, 30) | (60, 10, 30) | |||
| (W, M) | 136 | (10, 15, 75) | None | LLIN_ACT 20 % | ACT_IRS 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % |
| (10, 15, 75) | (25, 10, 65) | (65, 5, 30) | (60, 10, 30) | (60, 10, 30) | |||
| (W, M) | 59 | (10, 15, 75) | None | None | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % |
| (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (60, 5, 35) | (60, 10, 30) | (60, 10, 30) | |||
| (W, M) | 22 | (10, 15, 75) | None | None | None | LLIN 20 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % |
| (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (25, 10, 65) | (55, 10, 35) | |||
| (W, M) | 3 | (10, 15, 75) | None | None | IPT 40 % | LLIN 20 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % |
| (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (25, 10, 65) | (55, 10, 35) | |||
| (W, M) | 2 | (10, 15, 75) | None | IPT 40 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % |
| (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (60, 5, 35) | (60, 10, 30) | (60, 10, 30) | |||
| (W, M) | 1 | (10, 15, 75) | IPT 20 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % |
| (10, 15, 75) | (60, 5, 35) | (60, 10, 30) | (60, 10, 30) | (60, 10, 30) | |||
| (W, M) | 1 | (10, 15, 75) | IPT 40 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % |
| (10, 15, 75) | (60, 5, 35) | (60, 10, 30) | (60, 10, 30) | (60, 10, 30) | |||
| (W, H) | 371 | (10, 15, 75) | None | None | None | None | LLIN_ACT 60 % |
| (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (60, 5, 35) | |||
| (W, H) | 126 | (10, 15, 75) | None | None | None | None | None |
| (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | |||
| (W, H) | 1 | (10, 15, 75) | None | None | None | None | IPT 40 % |
| (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | |||
| (W, H) | 1 | (10, 15, 75) | None | None | IPT 40 % | None | LLIN_ACT 60 % |
| (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (60, 5, 35) | |||
| (W, H) | 1 | (10, 15, 75) | IPT 40 % | IPT 40 % | IPT 40 % | IPT 20 % | LLIN_ACT 60 % |
| (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (10, 15, 75) | (60, 5, 35) |
Geographic region refers to the climate region and distribution cost pair, where the climate region is dry (D), moderate (M) or wet (W), and the distribution cost is low (L), medium (M) or high (H). Number of districts refers to the number of districts that were assigned a given trajectory. Initial population state is the starting (S, I, R) percentages of the region; the end population state for a given year is the resulting (S, I, R) state after distributing the corresponding intervention. The total person-days of malaria infection in this scenario is 4.506 billion