TABLE III -. Performance of risk models in quintiles of risk.

		All			MVR			AVR			DVR			CABG + MVR			CABG + AVR
Risk score	Quintile	No. at risk	% observed deaths	% predicted deaths	No. at risk	% observed deaths	% predicted deaths	No. at risk	% observed deaths	% predicted deaths	No. at risk	% observed deaths	% predicted deaths	No. at risk	% observed deaths	% predicted deaths	No. at risk	% observed deaths	% predicted deaths
AES = additive EuroSCORE; AVR = aortic valve replacement; CABG = coronary artery bypass grafting; DVR = double valve replacement; LES = logistic EuroSCORE; MVR = mitral valve replacement; ROC = receiver operating characteristic; STS = Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS).
STS	1st	98	0	0.55	49	0	0.59	27	0	0.44				11	9.09	1.66	10	0	1.27
	2nd	98	2.04	0.84	50	0	0.81	28	0	0.62				12	8.33	2.56	10	0	1.87
	3rd	98	2.04	1.22	49	0	1.02	27	11.1	0.88				11	18.18	3.86	10	10	2.35
	4th	98	7.22	2.07	50	6	1.56	28	0	1.35				12	8.33	5.64	10	30	2.74
	5th	98	15.31	5.98	49	8.16	5.41	27	3.7	3.20				11	36.36	10.64	7	22.2	5.26
AES	1st	115	0	2	56	0	2	36	0	2	21	0	2	18	5.56	6	14	14.29	5.14
	2nd	160	1.25	3	47	0	3	33	3.03	3	16	0	3	9	0	8	8	0	7
	3rd	92	4.35	4.62	47	0	3	34	2.94	4.65	16	6.25	3	9	22.22	9.22	9	0	8
	4th	122	3.28	6.96	44	4.84	4.82	13	0	6	19	5.26	4.95	17	43.53	12.18	10	20	9.50
	5th	87	20.69	11.34	53	7.55	9.06	21	9.52	9.57	14	0	7.86	4	50	15	8	25	13.75
LES	1st	115	0	1.51	55	0	1.51	36	0	1.51	21	0	1.51	11	0	4.65	10	20	3.69
	2nd	128	0.78	2.06	58	0	2.06	21	4.76	2.04	22	0	2.06	12	16.67	8.05	10	0	5.90
	3rd	112	4.46	3.07	10	0	2.25	25	4	2.56	11	9.09	2.27	11	9.09	11.87	11	0	8.74
	4th	106	3.77	6.54	49	4.08	4.10	29	0	4.16	15	0	4.14	12	16.67	23.41	9	11.11	13.54
	5th	115	15.65	22.02	48	10.42	18.09	26	7.69	15.16	17	5.88	11.06	11	36.36	38.81	9	33.33	36.56
EuroSCORE II	1st	115	0	0.61	52	0	0.58	28	0	0.58	18	0	0.97	12	0	3.97	11	18.18	2.76
	2nd	117	1.71	0.88	53	0	0.75	29	0	0.75	16	0	1.23	11	9.09	6.37	9	11.11	4.63
	3rd	115	3.48	1.45	44	0	0.96	52	3.85	1.47	19	5.26	1.59	11	47.27	9.74	10	0	6.65
	4th	115	3.48	3.80	49	4.08	1.73	12	0	3.74	16	6.25	2.57	12	0	22.78	10	0	10.49
	5th	114	15.79	18.16	49	10.20	11.73	16	12.5	11.36	17	0	7.58	11	45.45	49.11	9	33.33	23.94