Figure 4. Forecast probability of observed DIR in the low, medium and high category for June 2014.
Forecast probability given that (a) low, (b) medium and (c) high DIR was observed. Grey areas indicate that other DIR categories were observed and are therefore not considered. The graduated colour bar represents the probability of observing the given category (ranging from 0%, pale colours, to 100%, deep colours). Note, the alarm trigger thresholds are marked with a star (*). For (a) low risk warnings, pL > 68%, for (b) medium risk warnings, pM > 32% and for (c) high risk warnings, pH > 18%. Colour bars are weighted, with increased saturation beyond the alarm trigger threshold to reflect the correct assignation of warnings.