Table 1.
Dengue risk forecast warnings and corresponding observations for June, 2014 for host microregions. Dengue risk forecast warnings and observed category for June 2014, for the microregions hosting the World Cup tournament. Low risk was defined as fewer than 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, medium risk as between 100 and 300 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and high risk as greater than 300 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. If the probability of low risk was less than 68%, a medium risk forecast warning was issued. If the probability of high risk was concurrently greater than 18%, the forecast warning was upgraded to high risk. The observed DIR value is included. Microregions where the observed DIR fell into the same category as forecast (e.g. the forecast warning category was high and the observed DIR category was high), are shaded.
| Microregion | Forecast warning |
Probability
(pL, pM, pH) |
Observed DIR | Observed category |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belo Horizonte | Medium | p(65%, 24%, 11%) | 126 | Medium |
| Brasília | Low | p(73%, 20%, 7%) | 725 | High |
| Cuiabá | Low | p(71%, 22%, 7%) | 168 | Medium |
| Curitiba | Low | p(100%, 0%, 0%) | 4 | Low |
| Fortaleza | High | p(34%, 20%, 46%) | 507 | High |
| Manaus | Medium | p(63%, 25%, 12%) | 110 | Medium |
| Natal | High | p(32%, 20%, 48%) | 780 | High |
| Porto Alegre | Low | p(100%, 0%, 0%) | 1 | Low |
| Recife | High | p(57%, 24%, 19%) | 161 | Medium |
| Salvador | Medium | p(56%, 27%, 17%) | 149 | Medium |
| São Paulo | Low | p(99%, 1%, 0%) | 161 | Medium |
| Rio de Janeiro | Medium | p(62%, 25%, 13%) | 32 | Low |