Table 2.
Summary of contingency table results for observed DIR exceeding the epidemic risk threshold. Summary of contingency table results for observed DIR exceeding the high risk epidemic threshold (300 cases per 100,000 inhabitants) using the probabilistic category forecast model and the null model (mean DIR, June 2000–2013) for June 2014.
| Performance measures |
Forecast model
probabilistic |
Null model
seasonal mean |
|---|---|---|
| Hit | 81 | 46 |
| False alarm (type I error) | 94 | 55 |
| Miss (type II error) | 60 | 95 |
| Correct rejection | 318 | 357 |
| Hit rate | 57% | 33% |
| False alarm rate | 23% | 13% |
| Miss rate | 43% | 67% |