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. 2016 Feb 24;5:e11285. doi: 10.7554/eLife.11285

Table 3.

The four possible outcomes for categorical forecasts of a binary event.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.011

Event observed

Yes No Total

Forecast warning issued

Yes Hit (a) False alarm (b) a+b
No Miss (c) Correct rejection (d) c+d
Total a+c b+d a+b+c+d=n