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The El Niño spring forecasts of the Niño3.4 index from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Red lines show 50 ensemble members of the forecast plume initiated in March of 2014; the black dotted line indicates the observed Niño3.4 index. The observed development fell outside the forecast plume in June and July and remained beyond the typical forecast spread after that. Adapted from ref. 13.
