Table 1.

CHD and Stroke mortality projections in 2030, crude deaths stratified by age and gender with 95% lower (LCrI) and upper (UCrI) credible intervals. 1a, Conventional projections 1b, Trend-based projections.

1a.
	CHD			Stroke
Age	Mean	LCrI	UCrI	Mean	LCrI	UCrI
M 25–34	838	638	1114	303	220	421
M 35–44	6083	4757	7816	1146	848	1534
M 45–54	19278	15404	24233	2891	2153	3849
M 55–64	31065	24880	39104	6347	4756	8452
M 65–74	56973	45846	71209	17796	13239	23468
M 75–84	73334	59310	91619	31810	23878	42297
M 85+	62055	50365	77951	25048	18988	33650
F 25–34	259	189	355	251	187	327
F 35–44	1765	1368	2286	879	680	1133
F 45–54	6631	5286	8404	2110	1661	2692
F 55–64	15897	12749	20158	4695	3656	5927
F 65–74	35054	28051	44261	15178	11905	19258
F 75–84	52931	42599	67393	34722	27197	44596
F 85+	75996	61086	95429	49103	38500	62479
Totals	438159	352528	551332	192279	147868	250083
CVD Total	630438	500396	801415

1b.
	CHD			Stroke
Age	Mean	LCrI	UCrI	Mean	LCrI	UCrI
M 25–34	856	468	1657	268	111	683
M 35–44	5031	3167	8141	868	423	1955
M 45–54	13166	8685	21225	2003	971	4260
M 55–64	21548	14211	34330	4311	2117	9192
M 65–74	38567	25202	61328	12070	5944	25614
M 75–84	50084	32783	79061	21531	10469	45754
M 85+	41882	27517	66348	16921	8295	35737
F 25–34	255	122	547	185	73	463
F 35–44	1382	761	2605	603	273	1384
F 45–54	4237	2415	7726	1370	636	3039
F 55–64	10294	5857	18647	3055	1396	6673
F 65–74	22480	12886	40508	9920	4586	22151
F 75–84	33931	19378	61279	22680	10400	50355
F 85+	47978	27368	85627	32148	14568	70044
Totals	291691	180820	489029	127933	60262	277304
CVD Total	419624	241082	766333