Fig 2. Illustrative time series for the effects of applying only a transgenic vector manipulation strategy.

In this, and in subsequent figures, β = −10, which corresponds to G(0) = 0.99995. (A) The effects on the total number of cases (i.e., cumulative incidence) up until time t for transgenic population replacement where the parameter α reflects how quickly a vector competent population is replaced through transgenic vector manipulation. A value of α governing the decline in vector competence of 10⁻¹ per day corresponds to a program that takes approximately 0.4 years to reduce vector competence by 99%, while a value of 2.5 × 10⁻³ corresponds to a program that takes approximately 16 years to reduce vector competence by 99%. (B) The effects on the type reproductive number over time of the different transgenic population replacement strategies. (C) The effects on the total number of cases of transgenic vector manipulation that reduces recruitment of vectors across release ratios. We note that if the transgenic strategy acts on vector recruitment, its effects on vector poulation size are mediated by the effects of other demographic processes (such as density-independent mortality and density dependence). Whereas, when the transgenic strategy aims at population replacement, the effects of the transgenic strategies are proportional to reductions in vector competence. (D) The effects on the type reproductive number over time of the different transgenic population reduction strategies.