Table 2.
Logistic Regression of Persistence in STEM (NLSY97)
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| |||||||
| Baseline | PIAT | TIPI | TIPI & PIAT | ||||
|
| |||||||
| adjusted for ME? | N | Y | N | Y | N | Y | |
| URM | −0.584* (0.223) |
−0.427* (0.217) |
−0.375 (0.235) |
−0.641* (0.222) |
−0.894* (0.474) |
−0.472 (0.237) |
−0.690 (0.411) |
| Female | −0.704* (0.203) |
−0.717* (0.210) |
−0.728* (0.212) |
−0.594* (0.226) |
−0.128 (0.616) |
−0.612* (0.223) |
−0.270 (0.526) |
| PIAT | 0.330* (0.109) |
0.324* (0.121) |
0.341* (0.113) |
0.400* (0.200) |
|||
| TIPI Extraversion | −0.284* (0.111) |
−0.625 (0.652) |
−0.280* (0.115) |
−0.661 (0.546) |
|||
| TIPI Agreeableness | −0.227 (0.117) |
−0.943 (0.745) |
−0.242* (0.115) |
−0.957* (0.489) |
|||
| TIPI Conscientiousness | 0.082 (0.107) |
0.432 (0.327) |
0.081 (0.106) |
0.444 (0.312) |
|||
| TIPI Emo. Stability | 0.036 (0.114) |
0.397 (0.460) |
0.017 (0.116) |
0.215 (0.388) |
|||
| TIPI Openness | −0.083 (0.113) |
−0.177 (0.948) |
−0.083 (0.116) |
0.354 (0.857) |
|||
|
| |||||||
| N | 428 | 428 | 428 | 428 | 428 | 428 | 428 |
| DIC | 560 | 552 | 554** | 555 | 505** | 547 | 507** |
| Error Rate*** | 36.9% | 35.7% | 36.4% | 32.7% | 23.1% | 32.7% | 22.7% |
Notes: Estimates reported are the mean and standard deviation of the MCMC chains of the parameters in the structural model for a sample of those youth who have completed a two or four-year college degree and who declared a STEM major at some point. All estimates of latent variables have been standardized such that the regression coefficients represent a 1 standard deviation change in the latent trait for comparison purposes.
Statistical significance at the 5% alpha level.
This represents the contribution to DIC (deviance information criteria) that the logistic regression makes. WinBUGS separately reports the contribution to DIC for each separate node or array (Spiegelhalter, et al., 2002). This enables the individual contributions from different parts of the model to be assessed. Because the MESE model is so much more complex than a model that does not model error at all, we want to compare the fit of the structural model in the MESE model with that of the structural model with no error distribution of θ. The total DIC (including the estimation of the latent variables) is 12620, 13734 and 25817.
The error rate is the misclassification rate of the model which equals the sum of the false positive and the false negatives in the model divided by the total number of individuals in the dataset.