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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2017 Mar 1.
Published in final edited form as: J Clin Virol. 2015 Nov 18;76(Suppl 1):S62–S68. doi: 10.1016/j.jcv.2015.11.020

Figure 2.

Figure 2

Projected impact on the positive predictive value of a future cervical cancer screening test following reductions in precancerous lesion prevalence post HPV vaccination. The X axis indicates in a log scale (base 2) the impact of HPV vaccination on the prevalence of lesions whereas the Y axis shows the positive predictive value of the future screening test. Sensitivity is assumed constant at 99% and specificity as 90%, 95%, 97%, and 99%, (curves from left to right). The horizontal broken lines indicates today’s 2% and 10% risk thresholds of a pre-existing lesion to guide clinical decision regarding immediate colposcopy referral (> 10%), repeat screening in the short-term (2%–10%), or continue low-intensity screening of average-risk women (< 2%).