Table 1.

Model inputs

Model input	Distribution	Mean/base case	SE	Parameter 1a	Parameter 2a	Source/notes
RR all-cause mortality, chronic alcohol misuser, male	LogNormal	1.56	0.270	0.445	0.270	Rehm et al. [31] used to calculate LT mortality (transition set b)
RR all-cause mortality, chronic alcohol misuser, female	LogNormal	2.26	0.342	0.815	0.342	Rehm et al. [31] used to calculate LT mortality (transition set b)
Prevalence alcohol misuse, male	Constant	6 %	–	–	–	Drummond et al. [32] Input to calculate LT mortality (transition set b)
Prevalence alcohol misuse, female	Constant	2 %	–	–	–	Drummond et al. [32] Input to calculate LT mortality (transition set b)
Acute mortality among patients with WKS	Beta	10.6 %	1.9 %	26	245	Input to transition ab
Prevalence of WKS in chronic alcohol misusers attending the ED	Scaled beta	19.0 %	21.72 %	2.359	1.865	Range: 5, 30 Source: expert elicitation Input to transition set ab
Proportion of patients presenting at an ED developing KS, no thiamine	Beta	84.4 %	2.65 %	157	29	Victor et al. [16] Input to transition set cb
Proportion of patients with KS admitted to long-term care	Beta	26.0 %	4.28 %	27	77	Victor et al. [16] Input to transition set cb
Probability of recovery from KS and discharge to community care or community	(see Electronic Supplementary Material 5)					Parameter set d
Probability of re-attendance at an ED once discharged	Uniform	31.6 %	–	10 %	50 %	Assumption based on Pirmohamed et al. 2000 [35] Transition set eb
Relative risk of development of KS, 10 days of treatment vs 0	Normal	0.050	0.013	0.050	0.013	Elicitation panelc
9 days vs 0	Normal	0.054	0.016	0.054	0.016	Elicitation panelc
8 days vs 0	Normal	0.058	0.019	0.058	0.019	Elicitation panelc
7 days vs 0	Normal	0.061	0.022	0.061	0.022	Elicitation panelc
6 days vs 0	Normal	0.065	0.025	0.065	0.025	Elicitation panelc
5 days vs 0	Normal	0.069	0.028	0.069	0.028	Elicitation panelc
4 days vs 0	Normal	0.281	0.073	0.281	0.073	Elicitation panelc
3 days vs 0	Normal	0.493	0.119	0.493	0.119	Elicitation panelc
2 days vs 0	Normal	0.705	0.165	0.705	0.165	Elicitation panelc
1 day vs 0	Normal	0.852	0.148	0.852	0.148	Elicitation panelc
Cost of ED attendance (GBP)	Gamma	115	28.20	16.4681	6.9489	NHS Reference Costs 2013 [37]
Cost of long-term institutional care, per 3 months (GBP)	Uniform	10,608	–	8000	12,000	PSSRU [36]
Cost of community care per 3 months (GBP)	Uniform	5941	–	2500	6500	PSSRU [36]
Cost of inpatient bed-day (GBP)	Gamma	279	43.03	42.0417	6.6363	NHS Reference Costs 2013 [37]d
Thiamine preparation, per pair of ampoules	Constant	GBP1.96	–			BNF 67 [40]e
Multivitamins, per day	Constant	GBP0.054	–			BNF 67 [40]f
Magnesium supplement, per day	Constant	GBP1.10	–			BNF 67 [40]g
IV giving set	Constant	GBP1.95	–			Representative costh
Saline 1 L	Constant	GBP0.97	–			BNF 67 [40]i
IV catheter	Constant	GBP1.80	–			Representative costj

BNF British National Formulary, ED emergency department, IV intravenous, KS Korsakoff’s syndrome, LT long-term, PSSRU Personal Social Services Research Unit, RR relative risk, SE standard error, WKS Wernicke–Korsakoff syndrome

^aParameters for each distribution are as follows: normal- mean, standard error; beta- successes, failures; scaled beta- as for beta, with range for distribution reported in source/notes column; gamma- shape, scale; lognormal- natural log of mean, standard error of natural log of mean; uniform- lower and upper bounds

^bTransition as per Fig. 1

^cSee Electronic Supplementary File 3 for further details of the elicitation panel

^dBased on mean of elective inpatient general surgery excess bed-day costs

^ePabrinex^® IV, GBP1.96 per pair of ampoules

^fMultivitamin capsules, GBP1.50 per 28-capsule pack

^gNon-proprietary magnesium maximum dose 160 mmol IV over 5 days

^h http://www.dsmedical.co.uk/iv_giving_set

ⁱNon-proprietary 1 L saline

^jVenflon, www.vivomed.com