|
Risk of EV71-HFMD (per 100,000 births)
|
|
|
Dirichlet distribution with parameters equal to one plus the number of mild, severe, and fatal cases |
National HFMD surveillance database and virological surveillance records from 31 provinces during 2010–2013. Values for uncertainty analysis corresponded to the risk estimates across the 19 scenarios in Fig 2B. Values for probabilistic sensitivity analysis corresponded to the conjugate posterior distributions for multinomial likelihood assuming that the priors were a non-informative Dirichlet distribution (all parameters equal to one). |
| Mild, P
mild
|
3,088 |
2,932–7,077 |
|
|
| Severe, P
severe
|
83 |
75–107 |
|
|
| Fatal, P
fatal
|
3.13 |
3.04–3.53 |
|
|
|
Expected cost due to EV71-HFMD per birth including productivity loss of parents/caregivers
|
|
|
Expected cost and QALY loss in each severity–region stratum followed bivariate normal distribution with mean and covariance matrix shown in S12 Table
|
Telephone survey of parents/caregivers of 1,787 laboratory-confirmed EV71-HFMD pediatric cases. Expected cost and QALY loss in each severity–region stratum were estimated using the central limit theorem. |
| Mild, C
mild
|
7.86 |
— |
|
|
| Severe, C
severe
|
2.68 |
— |
|
|
| Fatal, C
fatal
|
0.08 |
— |
|
|
|
Expected cost due to EV71-HFMD per birth excluding productivity loss of parents/caregivers
|
|
|
|
|
| Mild, C
mild
|
6.11 |
— |
|
|
| Severe, C
severe
|
2.57 |
— |
|
|
| Fatal, C
fatal
|
0.07 |
— |
|
|
|
Expected QALY loss due to EV71-HFMD per birth
|
|
|
|
|
| Mild, Q
mild
|
11.2 × 10−5
|
— |
|
|
| Severe, Q
severe
|
1.24 × 10−5
|
— |
|
|
| Fatal, Q
fatal
|
95.3 × 10−5
|
— |
|
|
|
Discount rate for cost and health utility
|
3% |
3% or 6% |
— |
Assumed |
|
Willingness-to-pay threshold
|
1 × GDPpc |
1 or 3 × GDPpc |
— |
Assumed |
|
Proportion of EV71-HFMD cases registered by national surveillance
|
1 |
1 or 0.74 with parameter uncertainty |
Beta distribution with mean 0.74 and standard deviation 0.053 |
Comparison of the incidence rate of EV71-HFMD in the three vaccine trials with that in the national surveillance |
