Table 3. Cost-effectiveness ceiling on effective vaccine cost if the proportion of EV71-HFMD cases registered by national surveillance was the same as that observed in the three EV71 vaccine trials.
| Scenario | Societal Perspective | Excluding Productivity Loss of Parents/Caregivers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3% Discounting | 6% Discounting | 3% Discounting | 6% Discounting | |||||
| WTP 1 × GDPpc | WTP 3 × GDPpc | WTP 1 × GDPpc | WTP 3 × GDPpc | WTP 1 × GDPpc | WTP 3 × GDPpc | WTP 1 × GDPpc | WTP 3 × GDPpc | |
| A (base case) | 24.4 (20.9–28.2) | 44.1 (38.1–50.9) | 19.9 (17.0–23.1) | 32.1 (27.6–37.1) | 21.8 (18.8–25.2) | 41.6 (35.9–48.0) | 17.5 (15.0–20.3) | 29.6 (25.6–34.3) |
| B | 29.9 (25.7–34.7) | 50.7 (43.7–58.5) | 25.2 (21.5–29.3) | 38.3 (32.9–44.3) | 26.2 (22.5–30.4) | 47.0 (40.5–54.2) | 21.7 (18.5–25.2) | 34.8 (30.0–40.2) |
| C | 38.3 (32.7–44.5) | 60.5 (52.1–70.0) | 33.1 (28.2–38.6) | 47.6 (40.9–55.2) | 32.9 (28.1–38.2) | 55.1 (47.5–63.7) | 28.0 (23.9–32.6) | 42.5 (36.5–49.2) |
| D | 25.9 (22.3–30.0) | 47.3 (40.9–54.7) | 21.1 (18.1–24.4) | 34.2 (29.5–39.5) | 23.3 (20.1–27.0) | 44.8 (38.6–51.6) | 18.6 (16.0–21.6) | 31.8 (27.4–36.7) |
| E | 31.5 (27.0–36.5) | 53.9 (46.4–62.2) | 26.3 (22.5–30.6) | 40.4 (34.7–46.7) | 27.8 (23.8–32.2) | 50.2 (43.3–57.9) | 22.8 (19.5–26.5) | 36.9 (31.7–42.7) |
| F | 39.8 (34.0–46.4) | 63.8 (54.8–73.8) | 34.2 (29.2–40.0) | 49.8 (42.7–57.7) | 34.4 (29.5–40.0) | 58.3 (50.2–67.4) | 29.1 (24.8–33.9) | 44.6 (38.3–51.7) |
| G | 26.4 (22.7–30.6) | 48.3 (41.6–55.8) | 21.4 (18.4–24.8) | 34.8 (30.0–40.3) | 23.8 (20.5–27.5) | 45.7 (39.5–52.8) | 19.0 (16.3–22.0) | 32.4 (27.9–37.4) |
| H | 32.0 (27.4–37.1) | 54.9 (47.2–63.4) | 26.7 (22.8–31.1) | 41.1 (35.3–47.6) | 28.2 (24.2–32.7) | 51.2 (44.1–59.1) | 23.2 (19.8–26.9) | 37.6 (32.3–43.4) |
| I | 40.3 (34.4–46.9) | 64.8 (55.7–74.9) | 34.6 (29.5–40.4) | 50.4 (43.3–58.5) | 34.9 (29.9–40.5) | 59.3 (51.1–68.6) | 29.5 (25.1–34.3) | 45.3 (38.9–52.4) |
| J | 24.6 (21.1–28.6) | 44.0 (38.0–50.8) | 20.2 (17.3–23.5) | 32.2 (27.7–37.2) | 22.0 (18.9–25.5) | 41.3 (35.7–47.7) | 17.7 (15.2–20.6) | 29.7 (25.6–34.3) |
| K | 29.3 (25.1–34.0) | 49.5 (42.7–57.2) | 24.6 (21.0–28.7) | 37.4 (32.1–43.3) | 25.6 (22.0–29.7) | 45.8 (39.5–53.0) | 21.2 (18.1–24.6) | 34.0 (29.2–39.3) |
| L | 36.6 (31.3–42.7) | 58.2 (50.1–67.5) | 31.6 (27.0–36.9) | 45.7 (39.2–53.0) | 31.4 (26.9–36.5) | 53.0 (45.6–61.3) | 26.6 (22.7–31.1) | 40.7 (35.0–47.3) |
| M | 26.8 (23.0–31.0) | 48.4 (41.7–55.8) | 21.9 (18.8–25.4) | 35.2 (30.3–40.6) | 24.1 (20.7–27.9) | 45.7 (39.4–52.7) | 19.3 (16.6–22.5) | 32.6 (28.1–37.7) |
| N | 38.8 (33.2–45.2) | 62.7 (53.9–72.4) | 33.3 (28.4–38.8) | 48.7 (41.8–56.4) | 33.6 (28.7–38.9) | 57.4 (49.4–66.2) | 28.3 (24.2–32.9) | 43.7 (37.6–50.5) |
| O | 27.4 (23.5–31.8) | 49.6 (42.8–57.3) | 22.4 (19.2–26.0) | 36.0 (31.0–41.6) | 24.7 (21.3–28.6) | 46.9 (40.5–54.1) | 19.8 (17.0–23.0) | 33.4 (28.8–38.6) |
| P | 32.1 (27.6–37.2) | 55.1 (47.5–63.6) | 26.8 (23.0–31.2) | 41.2 (35.5–47.7) | 28.4 (24.3–32.9) | 51.4 (44.3–59.4) | 23.3 (19.9–27.0) | 37.7 (32.4–43.5) |
| Q | 39.5 (33.8–45.8) | 63.9 (55.0–73.8) | 33.8 (28.9–39.3) | 49.5 (42.6–57.4) | 34.2 (29.3–39.6) | 58.6 (50.5–67.6) | 28.8 (24.6–33.4) | 44.5 (38.3–51.4) |
| R | 25.3 (21.8–29.3) | 46.6 (40.2–53.8) | 20.5 (17.6–23.7) | 33.5 (28.9–38.7) | 22.8 (19.7–26.4) | 44.2 (38.1–51.0) | 18.1 (15.6–21.0) | 31.2 (26.9–36.0) |
| S | 40.5 (34.6–47.1) | 64.6 (55.5–74.6) | 34.9 (29.7–40.7) | 50.6 (43.3–58.6) | 35.0 (29.9–40.6) | 59.0 (50.8–68.2) | 29.6 (25.3–34.5) | 45.3 (38.9–52.4) |
The mean and 95% CI of EVCmax are listed for each scenario.
WTP, willingness-to-pay threshold.