Table 3.
Prediction of self-perceived recovery by psychological factors at baseline
| B (SE) | Exp B (Odds Ratio) | 95 % CI Exp B | p | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1: psychological factors as independent variables | ||||
| PGIC 1 week ( N = 77): | ||||
| Nagelkerke R2 = 0.02; AUC = 0.58 (95 % CI 0.43–0.72; p = 0.321) | ||||
| BQ4: anxiety | −0.09 (0.15) | 0.92 | 0.68–1.24 | 0.572 |
| BQ5: depression | 0.07 (0.12) | 1.07 | 0.85–1.35 | 0.579 |
| BQ6: fear avoidance | −0.01 (0.12) | 0.99 | 0.78–1.25 | 0.928 |
| BQ7: locus of control | 0.09 (0.12) | 1.09 | 0.87–1.36 | 0.459 |
| PGIC 1 month ( N = 82): | ||||
| Nagelkerke R2 = 0.17; AUC = 0.76 (95 % CI 0.62–0.90; p = 0.002) | ||||
| BQ4: anxiety | 0.44 (0.21) | 1.55 | 1.04–2.32 | 0.033 |
| BQ5: depression | −0.18 (0.16) | 0.83 | 0.61–1.14 | 0.247 |
| BQ6: fear avoidance | −0.33 (0.18) | 0.72 | 0.51–1.02 | 0.061 |
| BQ7: locus of control | 0.25 (0.16) | 1.28 | 0.93–1.77 | 0.529 |
| PGIC 3 months ( N = 80): | ||||
| Nagelkerke R2 = 0.22; AUC= 0.83 (95 % CI 0.72–0.93; p = 0.001) | ||||
| BQ4: anxiety | 0.14 (0.22) | 1.15 | 0.74–1.78 | 0.529 |
| BQ5: depression | −0.41 (0.21) | 0.67 | 0.45–1.00 | 0.049 |
| BQ6: fear avoidance | −0.09 (0.18) | 0.91 | 0.64–1.29 | 0.597 |
| BQ7: locus of control | 0.25 (0.18) | 1.28 | 0.91–1.81 | 0.163 |
| Model 2: signifiant factors of model 1 and age and baseline pain as independent variables | ||||
| PGIC 1 week ( N = 77): | ||||
| Nagelkerke R2 = 0.001; AUC= 0.52 (95 % CI 0.39–0.66; p = 0.763 | ||||
| Age | −0.001 (0.02) | 1.00 | 0.96–1.04 | 0.938 |
| Pain at baseline | 0.03 (0.14) | 0.97 | 0.74–1.28 | 0.841 |
| PGIC 1 month ( N = 83): | ||||
| Nagelkerke R2 = 0.18; AUC= 0.74 (95 % CI 0.58–0.90; p = 0.005) | ||||
| BQ 4: anxiety | 0.12 (0.12) | 1.12 | 0.89–1.41 | 0.321 |
| Age | −0.05 (0.02) | 0.95 | 0.91–0.99 | 0.021 |
| Pain at baseline | 0.20 (0.16) | 1.22 | 0.89–1.68 | 0.225 |
| PGIC 3 months ( N = 81): | ||||
| Nagelkerke R2 = 0.21; AUC= 0.80 (95 % CI 0.69–0.91; p = 0.002) | ||||
| BQ 5: depression | −0.26 (0.12) | 0.77 | 0.61–0.98 | 0.037 |
| Age | −0.04 (0.03) | 0.97 | 0.92–1.02 | 0.163 |
| Pain at baseline | −0.13 (0.20) | 0.88 | 0.60–1.31 | 0.536 |
Logistic regressions with PGIC (0 = not improved, 1 = improved) of each time point as dependent variable and the psychological factors at baseline as independent variables. Multicollinearity diagnostics model 1/model 2: Tolerance: 0.39-0.76/0.89-1.00, VIF: 1.31-2.59/1.00-1.13. Numbers in bold indicate significant results.
AUC area under the receiver operating curve
BQ Bournemouth questionnaire
PGIC patient global impression of change