Table 4.
Prediction of self-perceived recovery by changes in psychological factors
| B (SE) | Exp B (Odds Ratio) | 95 % CI Exp B | p | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1: psychological factors as independent variables | ||||
| PGIC 1 week ( N = 75): | ||||
| Nagelkerke R2 = 0.05; AUC = 0.62 (95 % CI 0.48–0.76; p = 0.119) | ||||
| BQ4: anxiety | 0.07 (0.10) | 1.07 | 0.88–1.29 | 0.488 |
| BQ5: depression | 0.16 (0.13) | 1.17 | 0.90–1.53 | 0.235 |
| BQ6: fear avoidance | −0.06 (0.11) | 0.95 | 0.76–1.17 | 0.603 |
| BQ7: locus of control | 0.02 (0.08) | 1.02 | 0.87–1.20 | 0.806 |
| PGIC 1 month ( N = 80): | ||||
| Nagelkerke R2 = 0.71; AUC = 0.97 (95 % CI 0.94–1.00; p < 0.001) | ||||
| BQ4: anxiety | 0.93 (0.31) | 2.53 | 1.37–4.67 | 0.003 |
| BQ5: depression | 0.44 (0.36) | 1.56 | 0.77–3.15 | 0.218 |
| BQ6: fear avoidance | 0.35 (0.28) | 1.42 | 0.83–2.45 | 0.204 |
| BQ7: locus of control | 0.09 (0.16) | 1.09 | 0.79–1.50 | 0.598 |
| PGIC 3 months ( N = 75): | ||||
| Nagelkerke R2 = 0.36; AUC = 0.90 (95 % CI 0.82–0.98; p < 0.001) | ||||
| BQ4: anxiety | 0.30 (0.20) | 1.35 | 0.92–1.99 | 0.123 |
| BQ5: depression | −0.17 (0.18) | 0.85 | 0.85 0.60–1.20 | 0.352 |
| BQ6: fear avoidance | 0.02 (0.15) | 1.02 | 0.76–1.37 | 0.074 |
| BQ7: locus of control | 0.23 (0.13) | 1.26 | 0.98–1.63 | 0.163 |
| Model 2: signifiant factors of model 1 and age and baseline pain as independent variables | ||||
| PGIC 1 week ( N = 77): | ||||
| Nagelkerke R2 = 0.001; AUC = 0.52 (95 % CI 0.39–0.66; p = 0.763 | ||||
| Age | −0.001 (0.02) | 1.00 | 1.44–3.54 | <0.001 |
| Pain at baseline | 0.03 (0.14) | 0.97 | 0.74–1.28 | 0.841 |
| PGIC 1 month ( N = 83): | ||||
| Nagelkerke R2 = 0.57; AUC = 0.92 (95 % CI 0.85–0.99; p < 0.001) | ||||
| BQ 4: anxiety | 0.81 (0.23) | 2.26 | 1.44–3.54 | <0.001 |
| Age | −0.01 (0.03) | 1.00 | 0.95–1.05 | 0.851 |
| Pain at baseline | 0.16 (0.21) | 1.17 | 0.77–1.78 | 0.454 |
| PGIC 3 months ( N = 82): | ||||
| Nagelkerke R2 = 0.12; AUC = 0.75 (95 % CI 0.63–0.86; p = 0.009) | ||||
| Age | −0.04 (0.02) | 0.96 | 0.92–1.01 | 0.111 |
| Pain at baseline | −0.27 (0.19) | 0.76 | 0.53–1.10 | 0.152 |
Logistic regressions with PGIC (0 = not improved, 1 = improved) of each time point as dependent variable and the changes in the psychological factors as independent variables. Multicollinearity diagnostics model 1/model 2: Tolerance: 0.42-0.83/0.85-0.97, VIF: 1.20-2.38/1.00-1.18. Numbers in bold indicate significant results.
AUC area under the receiver operating curve
BQ Bournemouth questionnaire
PGIC patient global impression of change