Figure 3.

Survival and body condition of male wire-tailed manakins varied with phase of the ENSO as measured by the SOI. (a) Annual survival probability was higher survival following El Niño years and lower following La Niña years. Points and error bars (s.e.) are annual survival estimates for territorial males. The solid line represents apparent survival estimated using beta parameters from the best-fit model incorporating SOI. Dashed lines represent upper and lower 95% confidence intervals for estimated survival probability. (b) Body condition was also higher following El Niño years and lower following La Niña years. Points and error bars (s.e.) are mean male body condition estimates. One year with insufficient data on body condition (2009) is excluded. Estimated mean body condition (solid line) and the 95% CI (dashed lines) were estimated using beta parameters from a model incorporating the influence of SOI on male condition.