Fig. 5.

Population dynamics of influenza A in New York (2001–2005): shaded region is the 95% credible interval calculated with samples given by splitHMC with ${\mathbf{C}}_{\text{in}}^{-1}$. SplitHMC with ${\mathbf{C}}_{\text{in}}^{-1}$ (red) is more conservative than splitHMC with ${\mathbf{C}}_{\text{BM}}^{-1}$ (dark green) in estimating the variation of population size trajectory