Fig 4. Median and 95% predictive intervals for the log (base 10) of annual probability of exporting one or more undetected AHS-infected horses.

Assumes 300 horses exported per year. LR, Low-risk area; EN, Endemic area; NoPAQ, No post-arrival quarantine or PCR; PAQ, Post arrival quarantine and PCR at destination; PCR, real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assay; LSe, lower PCR sensitivity estimate used; HSe, higher PCR sensitivity estimate used.