Table 5. Median and 95% predictive limits for probability of undetected AHS-infection for a single exported horse and annual probability of one or more undetected infected horses being exported.

	Probability of undetected infection for a single exported horse			Annual probability of one or more undetected infected horses being exporteda
Scenario	50%	2.50%	97.50%	50%	2.50%	97.50%
LR.NoPAQ	0.000005346	0.000000510	0.000041248	0.001602440	0.000153004	0.012298243
LR.PAQ	0.000000461	0.000000003	0.000008860	0.000138204	0.000000976	0.002654456
EN.NoPAQ	0.000092171	0.000005771	0.000809982	0.027273604	0.001729778	0.215801453
EN.PAQ	0.000007150	0.000000043	0.000192613	0.002142666	0.000012756	0.056151264

LR, Low-risk area; EN, Endemic area; NoPAQ, No post-arrival quarantine or PCR; PAQ, Post arrival quarantine and PCR at destination; PCR, real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assay.

^a Assumes 300 horses exported per year.