Table 3.

Projected total deaths and hospital deaths by age and gender according to three models (Portugal – 2010, 2020, 2030).

		All deaths (all places)			Hospital deaths
		2010	2020	2030	Model 1			Model 2		Model 3
					2010	2020	2030	2020	2030	2020	2030
Total
N		105,691	106,221	111,584	65,221	76,597	87,905	85,159	99,176	71,959	83,293
%		100	100	100	61.7	72.1	78.8	80.2	88.9	67.7	74.6
Age (years)
18–34		1370	1003	876	679	245	220	378	271	418	300
%		1.3	0.9	0.8	49.6	24.4	25.1	37.7	31.0	41.7	34.3
35–44		2474	2143	1535	1545	800	362	1034	724	1271	861
%		2.3	2.0	1.4	62.4	37.3	23.6	48.3	47.1	59.3	56.0
45–54		5210	4708	4174	3536	3536	3252	3613	3309	3225	2885
%		4.9	4.4	3.7	67.9	75.1	77.9	76.7	79.2	68.5	69.1
55–64		8881	8064	7382	6265	6593	6408	6715	6541	5956	5694
%		8.4	7.6	6.6	70.5	81.8	86.8	83.3	88.6	73.9	77.1
65–74		16,861	15,138	14,710	11,637	9502	7367	9760	8189	11,160	11,538
%		16.0	14.3	13.2	69.0	62.8	50.1	64.5	55.7	73.7	78.4
75–84		35,686	32,376	32,716	22,548	25,586	28,623	25,985	29,952	22,619	25,058
%		33.8	30.5	29.3	63.2	79.0	87.5	80.3	91.6	69.9	76.6
85+		35,175	42,790	50,190	18,998	30,336	41,673	37,674	50,190	27,311	36,957
%		33.3	40.3	45.0	54.0	70.9	83.0	88.0	100.00	63.8	73.6
Gender
Men	N	54,112	53,332	55,870	34,839	39,043	43,458	42,852	47,167	37,301	42,608
	%	51.2	50.2	50.1	64.4	73.2	77.8	80.3	84.4	69.9	76.3
Women	N	51,579	52,889	55,718	30,382	37,554	44,447	42,307	52,009	34,658	40,685
	%	48.8	49.8	49.9	58.9	71.0	79.8	80.0	93.3	65.5	73.0

%: non-standardised proportion.

Model 1 assumed that last 5 year trends of numbers of hospital deaths will be maintained in the future; model 2 assumed that last 5 year trends of variation of hospital deaths will be maintained; model 3 assumed that last 5 year trends of proportions of non-hospital deaths will be maintained (for more details on how these models were designed, please refer to Appendix 1).