Table 1.
Base-case estimates and ranges used in sensitivity analysis
| Variables | Base-case | Distribution of probabilistic sensitivity analysis | Ref. | ||
| Natural history and prognosis, per year | |||||
| Prevalence of cirrhosis | 1.77% | Β (1069, 59257) | [23] | ||
| Annual transition rates | |||||
| HCC incidence (1/yr) | NC | Cirrhosis | NC | Cirrhosis | |
| 30-39 yr | 0.00012 | 0.0024 | Gamma (0.06, 510) | Gamma (0.23, 96) | [2,10,23] |
| 40-49 yr | 0.00036 | 0.0070 | Gamma (0.33, 1190) | Gamma (1.2, 220) | |
| 50-59 yr | 0.00100 | 0.0200 | Gamma (3.07, 3614) | Gamma (10, 632) | |
| 60-69 yr | 0.00210 | 0.0410 | Gamma (19, 8928) | Gamma (67, 1640) | |
| 70-79 yr | 0.00430 | 0.0820 | Gamma (79, 18280) | Gamma (269, 3280) | |
| PHCC to CHCC (Non-cirrhosis) | 0.376 (0.157- 0.595) | Gamma (11.3, 30.1) | [10,15] | ||
| PHCC to CHCC (Cirrhosis ) | 0.637 (0.21-1.06) | Gamma (8.7, 13.6) | |||
| CHCC to HCC death | 1.05 (0.93-1.18) | Gamma (1.14, 1.09) | |||
| Age-specific mortality rate of cirrhosis | |||||
| 30-39 yr | 0.0046 | Gamma (0.2, 49.4) | [2,16-19] | ||
| 40-49 yr | 0.0086 | Gamma (0.8, 92.3) | |||
| 50-59 yr | 0.0170 | Gamma (3.1, 182.4) | |||
| 60-69 yr | 0.0380 | Gamma (15.5, 407.7) | |||
| 70-79 yr | 0.0980 | Gamma (103, 1051.5) | |||
| Survival rate of surveillance-detected PHCC (%) | 75 | Gamma (11.2, 15.8) | [15] | ||
| First-stage 5 markers screening characteristics | |||||
| Attendance rate (%) | 60 | Β (23654, 18733) | [9,13,24] | ||
| Sensitivity to Cirrhosis (%) | 80 | Β (62, 15) | [20] | ||
| Sensitivity to HCC | 95 | Β (50, 1) | [13] | ||
| Specificity to HCC | 70 | Β (9493, 4282) | [13] | ||
| Second-stage ultrasonography screening characteristics | |||||
| Compliance rate of ultrasonography (%) | 80 | Β (16394, 3212) | [9,13,24] | ||
| Sensitivity to cirrhosis (%) | 75 | Β (11, 3) | [21] | ||
| Sensitivity to HCC (%) | 83 | Β (48, 10) | [9,12,22] | ||
| Specificity to HCC (%) | 97 | Β (20137, 637) | [9,12,22] | ||
| Direct cost (USD) | |||||
| Biochemical test | |||||
| HBsAg | 4.7 | BNHI | |||
| HCVAb | 7.4 | BNHI | |||
| GOT | 1.5 | BNHI | |||
| GPT | 1.5 | BNHI | |||
| AFP | 5.9 | BNHI | |||
| Ultrasonography | 26 | BNHI | |||
| Confirmation (USD) | |||||
| Triple-phase abdominal CT | 148 | BNHI | |||
| Ultrasonic guidance for biopsy | 38.3 | BNHI | |||
| Liver puncture | 36 | BNHI | |||
| Specimen examinations of pathology | 51.2 | BNHI | |||
| Treatment (USD) | |||||
| Initial cost of HCC treatment | 4892 | Lognormal (8.28, 0.53) | NTUH | ||
| Continuing cost of HCC treatment | 4266 | Lognormal (8.18, 0.46) | NTUH | ||
| Incurable-cancer care (average) | 5691 | Lognormal (8.36, 0.81) | NTUH | ||
| Indirect cost (USD) | |||||
| Screening time (h) | 0.5 | [10,26] | |||
| Person accompanied for screening | 0 | [10,26] | |||
| Time spent for ultrasonography | 4 | [10,26] | |||
| Confirmation time (h) | 8 | NTUH, [26] | |||
| Person accompanied for confirmation | 1 | NTUH, [26] | |||
| Inpatient hospitalization (d) | 15 | NTUH | |||
| Inpatient recovered at home (d) | 15 | [26] | |||
| Person accompanied for inpatient care | 1.69 | [26] | |||
| Outpatient time per visit (h) | 4 | [26] | |||
| Outpatient visit per year | 9.7 | NTUH | |||
| Patient accompanied for outpatient visit | 0.77 | [26] | |||
| Inpatient of terminal care (d) | 30 | NTUH | |||
| Person accompanied for terminal care | 1 | [26] | |||
| Average work per month (h) | 184 | DGBAS | |||
| Production value per hour (USD) | 7.6 | DGBAS | |||
| Discount rate (%) | 3 | ||||
NC: Non-cirrhosis; HCC: Hepatocellular carcinoma; PHCC: Preclinical hepatocellular carcinoma; CHCC: Clinical hepatocellular carcinoma; CT: Computed tomography; GNP: Gross national product; BNHI: Bureau of the National Health Insurance; NTUH: National Taiwan University Hospital; DGBAS: Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics.