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. 2016 Apr;22(4):726–729. doi: 10.3201/eid2204.151372

Table 2. Results of Monte Carlo simulation characterizing the uncertainty about the number of cases and the passive surveillance multipliers and the annual reported and estimated cases and incidence of nontyphoidal Salmonella infections, Guangdong Province, China, 2012.

Age group, y Annual no. cases, median (95% CI) Multipliers, median 
(95% CI) No. cases
Annual incidence, cases/100,000
Reported Estimated 
(95% CI) Reported Estimated 
(95% CI)
0–4 87,195
(68,367–138,725) 209.6
(168.5–332.1) 415 87,195
(68,367–138,725) 6.13 1,287.9 
(1,009.8–2,049.0)
5–24 222,558
(90,222–1,376,278) 605.3
(248.9–3720.3) 367 222,558 
(90,222–1,376,278) 0.90 547.7 
(222.0–3387.1)
25–44 119,409
(49,292–488,534) 1038.3
(436.4–4250.9) 115 119,409 
(49,292–488,534) 0.32 333.4 
(137.6–1,364.1)
45–64 18,577
(11,400–36,234) 320.2
(216.8–603.2) 58 18,577 
(11,400–36,234) 0.40 126.6 
(77.7–247.0)
>65
16,421
(8,351–42,273)
457.1
(259.7–1156.5)
36
16,421 
(8,351–42,273)

0.56
255.1 
(129.7–656.8)
Overall 408,499
(302,899–591,901) 411.9
(308.4–592.7) 991 408,499 
(302,899–591,901) 0.95 391.6 
(290.3–567.4)