Table 2. Description of the climate change scenarios used in this study.
| Center | AOGCM | SRES | ΔTavg (°C) | ΔPrec (%) | ΔPrat (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCCMA | CGCM3.1 (T47) | A2 | +5.0 | +18.2 | −4.2 |
| A1B | +3.9 | +15.3 | −3.6 | ||
| B1 | +2.8 | +7.7 | −3.2 | ||
| CNRM | CM3 | A2 | +4.5 | +9.4 | −4.0 |
| A1B | +3.5 | +8.4 | −3.1 | ||
| B1 | +2.2 | +5.4 | −2.5 | ||
| CSIRO | MK3.0 | A2 | +3.9 | +11.8 | −1.6 |
| A1B | +2.8 | +6.7 | −2.8 | ||
| B1 | +1.8 | +4.8 | −1.5 | ||
| CSIRO | MK3.5 | A2 | +4.7 | +11.0 | −2.7 |
| A1B | +3.9 | +15.4 | −0.7 | ||
| B1 | +2.9 | +7.3 | −2.5 | ||
| GFDL | CM2.0 | A2 | +5.2 | +3.9 | −7.4 |
| A1B | +4.3 | +9.6 | −3.4 | ||
| B1 | +2.8 | +8.1 | −2.0 | ||
| IPSL | CM4 | A2 | +6.9 | +2.8 | −2.4 |
| A1B | +5.8 | +5.4 | −2.8 | ||
| B1 | +4.2 | +1.6 | −2.2 | ||
| CCSR | MIROC3.2 (Medres) | A2 | +6.8 | −0.8 | −9.3 |
| A1B | +5.8 | +3.1 | −7.1 | ||
| B1 | +4.0 | +5.7 | −5.2 | ||
| MIUB | ECHO-G | A2 | +5.0 | +12.6 | −0.1 |
| A1B | +4.8 | +11.4 | −0.2 | ||
| B1 | +3.4 | +5.9 | +0.3 | ||
| MRI | CGCM2.3.2 | A2 | +3.7 | +13.7 | −1.1 |
| A1B | +3.3 | +11.0 | −1.3 | ||
| B1 | +2.5 | +8.9 | +0.2 | ||
| Average ± SD | +4.1 ± 1.3 | +8.3 ± 4.5 | −2.8 ± 2.3 | ||
Each scenario combines an atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) from a given research center to an emissions scenario from the special report of emissions scenarios (SRES). ΔTavg: projected change in average annual temperature between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 for the study area; ΔPrec: projected change in total annual precipitation; ΔPrat: projected change in useful precipitation (ratio of summer precipitation to total annual precipitation). Minimum and maximum values for each variable are in bold character.