Table 4.

Simulation scenarios. a) Baseline mean burden for individual toxicities, identified by the acronyms in Tables 1 and 2, and for TTB, obtained from the elicited values in Tables 1-2. b) Each Scenario (Sc) is characterized by percent reductions in mean TTB and hazard ratio (HR) of PFS, for IMRT versus PBT. Scenarios 1-12 were obtained by randomly perturbing toxicity incidences and severity probabilities to give a 50% reduction in mean TTB for PBT, while fixing HR=1. Scenarios 13-16 were obtained by increasing the IMRT versus PBT HR for PFS, while fixing mean TTB difference = 0. Scenario 17 combines Scenarios 6 and 16 to yield a “win-win” scenario for PBT, with a 50% reduction in mean TTB for PBT and 2-fold increase in PFS hazard for IMRT. Scenario 18 combines Scenario 6 with a 2-fold decrease in IMRT-versus-PBT HR for PFS, to yield a “win-lose” scenario for PBT.

a)Baseline Mean Toxicity Burden by toxicity
	Recurrent Toxicities						Postoperative Complications
	PEF	PLE	RP	PNA	AFIB	MI	AL	ARDS	PEM	RI	ST	Total
μ	1.67	1.23	3.27	6.5	8.63	3.59	4.88	1.17	0.78	1.37	0.59	33.67

b) Simulation Scenarios combining effects for Mean TTB and PFS Hazard Ratio Percent Reduction in Mean Toxicity Burden for PBT vs IMRT by Toxicity													PFS HR
Sc	PEF	PLE	RP	PNA	AFIB	MI	AL	ARDS	PEM	RI	ST	Total
0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
1	75	50	87	4	34	76	26	70	70	34	3	50	1
2	69	56	32	81	34	8	4	22	70	81	82	50	1
3	67	81	29	7	81	19	6	32	3	67	52	50	1
4	70	48	83	11	14	69	62	71	15	78	50	50	1
5	45	63	7	72	13	71	73	14	17	35	38	50	1
6	56	52	83	64	13	69	40	23	9	1	79	50	1
7	57	50	78	55	14	2	75	74	70	28	58	50	1
8	63	85	57	52	9	79	26	5	79	78	74	50	1
9	59	71	79	39	6	53	75	69	71	6	44	50	1
10	65	24	29	17	64	83	22	25	26	74	70	50	1
11	62	73	75	7	78	45	0	0	0	0	0	50	1
12	60	59	60	41	78	32	0	0	0	0	0	50	1
13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.35
14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.6
15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.8
16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
17	56	52	83	64	13	69	40	23	9	1	79	50	2
18	56	52	83	64	13	69	40	23	9	1	79	50	0.5