Figure 3.

Mean SDM and CLM performance. Mean AUC scores (top row), 1−Brier scores (middle row) and Bray–Curtis similarity (bottom row) of SDMs (left column) and CLMs (middle column) for each combination of fit in and projected to periods. Each square represents the average of all five modelling algorithms for all genera. Green shading indicates high performance and orange shading indicates low performance. The right column shows the differences between SDM and CLM scores across all five modelling algorithms and all genera. Blue shading indicates superior SDM performance while red shading indicates better CLM performance. Cells with black outlines indicate statistically significant differences between SDMs and CLMs based on a Wilcoxon test on the mean values for each metric. The thick solid black lines indicate models that were fit and projected to the same time period and thus divide hindcasted models (above line) from forecasted models (below line).