Table 1.
Select model parameter inputs
| Model parameter | Base case value | Ranges examined | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cohort characteristics | INI | ||
| Age (SD), (years) | 37 (10) | 27–47 | |
| Male sex, (%) | 70 | 60–80 | |
| Mean (SD) CD4 at ART initiation, (/µL) | |||
| Era 1 | 185 (123) | 92–277 | |
| Era 2 | 231 (154) | 116–347 | |
| Era 3 | 284 (189) | 142–426 | |
| Era 4 | 343 (229) | 172–515 | |
| Era 5 | 383 (255) | 192–575 | |
| Era 6 | 518 (273) | 259–777 | |
| Proportion of patients with OI history at ART initiation, (%) | |||
| Era 1 | 63.7 | 31.9–95.6 | |
| Era 2 | 54.0 | 27.0–81.0 | |
| Era 3 | 42.5 | 21.3–63.8 | |
| Era 4 | 30.7 | 15.3–46.0 | |
| Era 5 | 23.7 | 11.9–35.6 | |
| Era 6 | 13.0 | 6.5–19.5 | |
| HIV RNA level at ART initiation, all Eras | |||
| > 100,000 | 45.1 | – | |
| 30,001–100,000 | 25.7 | – | |
| 10,001–30,000 | 18.3 | – | |
| 3001–10,000 | 10.9 | – | |
| ≤ 3000 | 0.0 | – | |
| Disease natural history | INI | ||
| Monthly risk of chronic AIDS death*, (%) | |||
| Without history of OI | 0.82–0.02 | – | |
| With history of OI | 5.67–0.02 | – | |
| Antiretroviral therapy | |||
| Adherence distribution | [19] | ||
| > 95% | 38.9 | 19.5–58.4 | |
| 80–95% | 30.2 | – | |
| < 80% | 30.9 | – | |
| First-line virologic suppression at six months, (%) | |||
| Era 1 | 60 | 40–80 | [30] |
| Eras 2–4 | 80 | 70–90 | [38] |
| Eras 5–6 | 90 | 85–95 | [38] |
| Virologic failure rate, (/100PM) | |||
| Currently prescribed regimens | 0.16 | 0.08–0.24 | [40,41] |
| Formerly prescribed regimens | 3.96 | 1.98–5.94 | [42] |
| Rate of loss to follow-up, (/1000PY) | 10.1 | 5.1–15.2 | [43] |
| Rate of return to care, (/1000PY) | 818 | 409–1227 | INI |
SD: standard deviation; INI: Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas; OI: opportunistic infection; PM: person-months; PY: person-years.
*
Risks are stratified by CD4 count, with higher risk associated with lower CD4 count.