TABLE 3—
Hierarchical Linear Regression of Select Metropolitan-Area Characteristics on the Prevalence of Injection Drug Use per 10 000 Black Individuals (Aged 15–64 Years): 95 Large US Metropolitan Statistical Areas, 1993–2007
| B (95% CI) |
Odds Ratiosa (95% CI) |
|||
| Predictors | Model A | Model Bb | Model A | Model B |
| Time | ||||
| No. of years since 1993 | −0.21 (–0.28, –0.15) | −0.20 (–0.27, –0.13) | 0.87 (0.83, 0.91) | 0.88 (0.84, 0.92) |
| No. of years since 1993, squared | 0.007 (–0.003, 0.02) | 0.003 (–0.008, 0.01) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.01) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.01) |
| No. of years since 1993, cubed | 0.0002 (–0.0003, 0.0007) | 0.0004 (–0.0001, 0.001) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) |
| Socioeconomic domain | ||||
| % residents who are Black | ||||
| 1992, square root | −0.37 (–0.61, –0.12) | −0.35 (–0.61, –0.08) | 0.78 (0.66, 0.92) | 0.79 (0.66, 0.95) |
| Change since 1992 | −0.09 (–0.12, –0.06) | −0.10 (–0.13, –0.07) | 0.94 (0.92, 0.96) | 0.94 (0.92, 0.96) |
| % adults (≥ 26 y) who do not have a high-school diploma or GED | ||||
| 1992 Black adults, squared | −0.04 (–0.34, 0.26) | −0.006 (–0.32, 0.31) | 0.97 (0.79, 1.19) | 1.00 (0.81, 1.23) |
| Change since 1992 for Black adults | 0.15 (0.09, 0.20) | 0.13 (0.08, 0.19) | 1.10 (1.06, 1.14) | 1.09 (1.06, 1.14) |
| 1992 White adults | 0.14 (–0.17, 0.46) | 0.12 (–0.20, 0.44) | 1.10 (0.89, 1.36) | 1.08 (0.88. 1.35) |
| Change since 1992 for White adults, logged | −0.004 (–0.04, 0.03) | −0.01 (–0.05, 0.03) | 1.00 (0.97, 1.02) | 0.99 (0.97, 1.02) |
| 1992 Black adults, squared * 1992 White adults | −0.0008 (–0.30, 0.30) | 0.009 (–0.32, 0.33) | 1.00 (0.82, 1.22) | 1.01 (0.81, 1.25) |
| Change since 1992 for Black adults * change since 1992 for White adults, logged | −0.02 (–0.04, 0.001) | −0.03 (–0.05, –0.004) | 0.99 (0.97, 1.00) | 0.98 (0.97, 1.00) |
| Median household income | ||||
| 1992 households headed by Black adults | −0.09 (–0.40, 0.001) | −0.07 (–0.41, 0.26) | 0.94 (0.76, 1.17) | 0.95 (0.76, 1.19) |
| Change since 1992 for households headed by Black adults | 0.11 (0.05, 0.17) | 0.10 (0.04, 0.17) | 1.07 (1.03, 1.12) | 1.07 (1.03, 1.12) |
| 1992 households headed by White adults | 0.45 (0.19, 0.71) | 0.43 (0.17, 0.70) | 1.35 (1.13, 1.61) | 1.34 (1.12, 1.60) |
| Change since 1992 for households headed by White adults | 0.21 (0.13, 0.29) | 0.20 (0.12, 0.28) | 1.15 (1.09, 1.21) | 1.14 (1.08, 1.21) |
| 1992 households headed by Black adults * 1992 households headed by White adults | 0.16 (–0.13, 0.46) | 0.16 (–0.15, 0.46) | 1.12 (0.92, 1.36) | 1.11 (0.91, 1.36) |
| Change since 1992 for households headed by Black adults * change since 1992 for households headed by White adults | −0.11 (–0.15, –0.07) | −0.11 (–0.14, –0.07) | 0.93 (0.91, 0.95) | 0.93 (0.91, 0.95) |
| Criminal justice activities domain | ||||
| Jail-based incarceration rate for Black adults, per 10 000 Black adults | ||||
| 1993, square root | −0.07 (–0.31, 0.17) | −0.07 (–0.34, 0.20) | 0.96 (0.81, 1.12) | 0.96 (0.80, 1.14) |
| Change since 1993 | −0.04 (–0.09, 0.003) | −0.03 (–0.08, 0.02) | 0.97 (0.94, 1.00) | 0.98 (0.95, 1.01) |
| Expenditures on social welfare and policing | ||||
| Per capita expenditures on public welfare | ||||
| 1992 | 0.10 (–0.09, 0.28) | 0.10 (–0.10, 0.29) | 1.07 (0.95, 1.21) | 1.07 (0.94, 1.22) |
| Change since 1992 | −0.03 (–0.06, 0.01) | −0.03 (–0.06, 0.01) | 0.98 (0.96, 1.01) | 0.98 (0.96, 1.00) |
| Historical context and death among injectors diagnosed with AIDS | ||||
| No. of large uprisings (1960–1969), logged | −0.17 (0.38, 0.04) | −0.15 (–0.37, 0.06) | 0.89 (0.78, 1.03) | 0.90 (0.78, 1.04) |
| Per capita expenditures on urban renewal, 1949–1974, square root | −0.01 (–0.23, 0.21) | −0.006 (–0.23, 0.22) | 0.99 (0.86, 1.15) | 1.00 (0.86, 1.16) |
| Death rate among Black injectors, per 10 000 Black injectors diagnosed with AIDS | ||||
| 1992 | Eliminated | −0.06 (–0.31, 0.19) | Eliminated | 0.96 (0.81, 1.13) |
| Change since 1992 | Eliminated | −0.09 (–0.12, –0.06) | Eliminated | 0.94 (0.92, 0.96) |
Note. CI = confidence interval; GED = general equivalency diploma. The outcome was logit transformed to linearize its association to the predictors.
a
Odds ratios were calculated by using a model in which the outcome was not standardized to generate correct effect estimates.
b
Model B differs from model A because the former includes a measure of the death rate among Black injectors diagnosed with AIDS.