Table 3.
Estimated economic losses US $million (model 1)
| US Region | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low range | high range | low range | high range | low range | high range | |
| Upper Midwest | -- | -- | 40.4 | 445.4 | -- | -- |
| Ohio Valley | 30.3 | 423.9 | 170.1 | 454.1 | 18.1 | 484.1 |
| South/Southeast/Southwest | 258.4 | 377.9 | 47.2 | 132.8 | 34 | 202.8 |
| Total US losses | 288.7 | 801.8 | 257.7 | 1062.3 | 52.1 | 686.9 |
* Numbers are calculated from model 1; which accounts for probabilities of Type 1 and Type 2 errore during aflatoxin testing methods. Calculations were based on corn production in each state, average price received per bushel for each state, percentage of bushels within aflatoxin ranges specified in Table 1 (applied uniformly across states), discount applied to each aflatoxin range for the Texas discount schedule (applied uniformly across states), and the probability of acceptance for each range (based on the OC curve). The low range value is a cumulative value based on the probability of acceptance if the aflatoxin level in lots is equivalent to the lowest value within a given FDA range (Table 1) for all aflatoxin ranges. The high range value is a cumulative value based on the probability of acceptance if the aflatoxin level in lots is equivalent to the highest value within a given FDA range (Table 1) for all aflatoxin ranges.