Table 4.
Estimated economic losses in US $million (model 2)
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Region | Type of discount schedule | |||||||||||
| Discard after 500 ng g−1 | Discard after 200 ng g−1 | Discard after 500 ng g−1 | Discard after 200 ng g−1 | Discard after 500 ng g−1 | Discard after 200 ng g−1 | |||||||
| Kansas | Texas | Kansas | Texas | Kansas | Texas | Kansas | Texas | Kansas | Texas | Kansas | Texas | |
| Upper Midwest | -- | -- | -- | -- | 26.8 | 78.3 | 26.8 | 78.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ohio Valley | 140 | 151.9 | 140.1 | 151.9 | 124.5 | 248.3 | 533.8 | 630.9 | 12.8 | 27.8 | 12.8 | 27.8 |
| South/Southeast/Southwest | 317.5 | 582.5 | 1376.0 | 1531.3 | 37.4 | 94.9 | 91.8 | 142.4 | 91.7 | 138.5 | 91.7 | 138.5 |
| Total US losses | 457.5 | 734.4 | 1516.1 | 1683.2 | 188.7 | 421.5 | 652.4 | 851.6 | 104.5 | 166.3 | 104.5 | 166.3 |
* Numbers represent the cumulative losses for each region by year and discount schedule. Discard after 500 or 200 ng g−1 designates those calculations where any lots that exceeded either 500 or 200 ng g−1 were assumed to lose all of their value. Calculations were based on corn production in each state, average price received per bushel for each state, percentage of bushels within aflatoxin ranges specified in Table 1 (applied uniformly across states), and discount applied to each aflatoxin range also specified in Table 1 (applied uniformly across states). The Kansas discount schedule applied smaller discounts than Texas for each range, however elevators in Kansas did not accept lots over 200 ng g−1, where Texas elevators would go up to 500 ng g−1. Therefore, these four discount schedules represent different possibilities that could be applied within the US.