Table 1. Predictive Performance Statistics.

Model	RMSE	SRMSE	R-sq.(adj)	AIC	∆ AIC
(A) Month of the Year	46.633	0.580	0.229	4884.18	0.00
(B) Meteorology Optimal	44.540	0.553	0.282	3867.23	-1016.96
(C) Surveillance: Short-term Lag	45.046	0.560	0.294	4362.54	-521.65
(D) Surveillance: Optimal Lag	41.846	0.520	0.443	3228.67	-1655.52
(E) Optimal Representation B-D	32.448	0.403	0.636	2311.60	-2572.58

∆ AIC = change in Akaike Information Criterion compared to the simplest model (A)