Table 1.
Scenario | Parameters | AUC (uninf.) | AUC (inf.) |
---|---|---|---|
Baseline | * | 0.67 | 0.93 |
Low sensitivity | z = 0.6 | 0.67 | 0.84 |
High sensitivity | z = 0.9 | 0.68 | 0.94 |
Low transmission | β = 0.001 | 0.62 | 0.96 |
High transmission | β = 0.008 | 0.74 | 0.91 |
Equal diversity ratio | γ = 0.1, γG = 0.1 | 0.68 | 0.91 |
Low diversity ratio | γ = 0.3, γG = 0.1 | 0.68 | 0.93 |
High diversity ratio | γ = 0.3, γG = 0.005 | 0.68 | 0.96 |
No increasing chain diversity | k = 1 | 0.68 | 0.93 |
Strongly increasing chain diversity | k = 0.5 | 0.69 | 0.90 |
Each value presented is the mean area under the ROC curve (AUC) for estimated trees under the transmission diversity model, based on 20 datasets simulated under the parameters indicated. Uninformed AUC is based on assigning equal weighting to all available sources. The more accurate reconstruction is highlighted in bold.
Baseline scenario: p = 0.05, z = 0.8, β = 0.005, γ = 0.2, γG = 0.05, k = 0.8.